Thursday, January 14, 2010

Mistake with Wyndham Worldwide (WYN)

Yesterday we mentioned Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) had broken out of a range, but I had reservations because this was not an "organic" breakout, but due to an analyst upgrade.

Then this morning an upgrade has created a gap up, and pushed the stock out of this sideways range.  Technically this is a "breakout"; however I'd rather see it happen naturally than on an analyst upgrade.  For now, I will just sit on my hands with our current stake and see how the stock reacts go forward.

As with almost any "sale" or reluctance to add to a position nowadays, that was the wrong idea.  Rather than thinking like a pragmatic human, I must remember to do what led to success in 2009; think like a technical robot who mimics HAL9000.  If I did, I would of loaded up on Wyndham on the breakout yesterday, perhaps doubling or tripling our position size, and today would of enjoyed the fruits of said machinations (I mean machinations, literally).

Who knew hotels were such a sexy investing theme... but I suppose to machines the underlying business is irrelevant, as long as the chart formation is pure.

If this move continues, I'll be looking to take profits very soon as the stock is now nowhere near the 20 day moving average... as for that gap fill?  Only after the "melt up" in the market ends.

Long Wyndham Worldwide in fund; no personal position

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