Friday, January 29, 2010

Do You Dare Bet Against Magical Mondays?

S&P 1085 continues to be the current floor - while we have a bounce, thus far it's pretty contained.  We are right back to where we were mid afternoon yesterday where we are at an unattractive place to short, just being a 5ish points above the 1085, with an oversold bounce expected.

Further, we soon face "the market can only go up on Mondays".  [Jan 25, 2010: Mondays Continue to be Wonderful]  I am going to cull half of the TNA short which was our insurance policy in case of some sell off late yesterday, with the exact same logic mentioned 24 hours ago.  I want to be short (a) below 1085, not "hovering above it" OR (b) somewhere quite a bit higher i.e. S&P 1100-1110.  I don't find this area to be attractive to be short...

The only question is do you go very long for the now expected Monday bounce?  Something so obvious as 16 of the past 18 Mondays in the green should stop working.  But it has yet to relent.  I am hoping to see a bounce Monday (and today) so I can get a lot more attractive short set ups on individual equities.

As for Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) that we mentioned yesterday - bounced smartly off the 200 day.  Despite a stronger dollar.  That is not unexpected - what it does after the cursory bounce is important.  Continues to be a name I am watching while everyone else focuses on Apple (AAPL).

The dollar continues to look excellent as mentioned earlier this week.

We're heavily in cash now, our hands being sat on.

EDIT: Well as I was writing this piece, the S&P fell from 1092 to 1086ish... interesting.  Will be aggressively short on the indexes below 1084ish.

No positions

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