Thursday, January 21, 2010

Bookkeeping: Restarting Gafisa (GFA) - For a Trade

Brazilian home builder Gafisa (GFA) was very good to us in 2009... and 2007.  Not so much in 2008.  We had stopped out of most of our position December 15th, 2008 in the $32.30s as the stock first broke below the 50 day moving average.  Then the remnant position was exited once it became clear that this break of support was not temporary in nature - we left January 11th, 2010 in the $30.40s.  The stock has been in free fall since.

I am going to take a stab around $27.40 for a trading position, as the 200 day moving average is just below in the low $27 area.  If that breaks we will be out, so I will place a stop loss roughly $26.85.  That is a 2% limit on losses.  My upside target is something in the low to mid $29s best case scenario for the trade (not an investment).  So 7% upside, 2% downside.  Since the chart is so damaged we cannot really buy this for an intermediate term position as it has a lot of work to do, to right itself technically.  We'll use a 2% allocation.

As the risk trade unwinds, again - almost all assets on Earth remain correlated and a Brazilian home builder is no different than a Chinese internet company which is no different than an American natural gas company.  Not to HAL9000 and his merry band of microchips. 

Long Gafisa in fund; no personal position

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