Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Bookkeeping: Closing Ctrip.com (CTRP)

I never really had a chance to build up a position in Ctrip.com (CTRP).  This position was restarted after a long hiatus from the portfolio, mid November at split adjusted $33ish.  Just a starter stake at the time, 0.5% allocation.  I added extra exposure in dribs and drabs but nothing very substantive, then took some profits a few weeks later in early December when the stock jumped to split adjusted upper $38s - the stock went up 8 of the 9 sessions after we bought it.  Once we sold, the stock drifted down, so I bought in small increments a batch here, or a batch there but it never regained anything higher than a 0.6-0.7% exposure on the second go around.

Now the stock is back roughly where we bought it in November, but unlike then it's in a much less attractive spot on the chart.  Rather than being above the 20 and 50 day moving averages, it is below.  Frankly with the 20 day moving average just about to cross below the 50 day (a quite bearish development) this is the exact set up I'd normally short .....the next time the stock bounces.  I haven't shorted an individual equity in a while so I will in fact throw a limit short order just below $35 and see if it hits in the coming days.  But for today, we're selling out of the long exposure and completely closing the position - Chinese stocks continue to underperform.  I might start looking for similar short side setups as Ctrip.com, as I see quite a few names on my watch lists with an identical chart pattern and just need a nice 3-5% bounce to create very low risk entry points.  If the S&P can jump up to that 1110-1115 area we might get those oversold bounces in the individual equities.

On a sidenote, I am completely out of the S&P500 (SPY) puts we put on last week, and for now replaced them with calls to see if I can grab 8-10 S&P points of upside.  Positions can change at any time (i.e. falling back down below S&P 1100 would change my mind) but looking at the chart a run up into resistance would seem a probable move.

No position

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