To that point, employment agency stocks shot out of a cannon Friday. (full list at TickerSpy)
What is even more interesting for the more recent data, is the BLS *did* revise recent data (Sep/Oct 2009), but instead of down, revised it up! Sept 09 from -263K to -139K and Oct 09 from -190K to -111K.
- TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November. This past month’s results were an improvement of only 10.2% from the 284,000 jobs lost in October.
- Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy lost an astonishingly better than expected 11,000 jobs in November. In addition, the BLS revised their September and October results down a whopping 203,000 jobs, resulting in a 45% improvement over their preliminary results.
- Something is not right in Kansas! Either the BLS results are wrong, our results are in error, or the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
- We believe the BLS is grossly underestimating current job losses due to their flawed survey methodology. Those flaws include rigid seasonal adjustments, a mysterious birth/death adjustment, and the fact that only 40% to 60% of the BLS survey is complete by the time of the first release and subject to revision.
- Seasonal adjustments are particularly problematic around the holiday season due to the large number of temporary holiday-related jobs added to payrolls in October and November which then disappear in January.
- In November, the BLS revised their September and October job losses down a surprising 44.5%, or 203,000 jobs. In the twelve months ending in October, the BLS revised their job loss estimates up or down by a staggering 679,000 jobs, or 13.0%. Until this past month, these revisions brought the BLS’ revised estimates to within a couple percent of TrimTabs’ original estimates.
Some other points of discrepency:
- Automatic Data Processing reported on Wednesday that 169,000 jobs were lost in November. (Mark's note: keep in mind, ADP data which is released 48 hours before the BLS data has often been inaccurate as well)
- The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Survey reported that the majority of companies surveyed were still shedding employees. (Mark's note: this was the ISM Services data we noted earlier in the week, showing contraction - this is the majority of our economy at >80%)
- The ISM Manufacturing Survey reported weaker employment conditions in November.
- Weekly unemployment claims were 457,000 in the week ended November 27, 2009. While last week’s results were below the important psychological level 500,000, the weekly claims are still uncomfortably high and point to a contracting labor market. (Mark's note: as we pointed out in the same Thursday story, many people are simply being reshuffled into the emergency extension programs, to the tube of 265,000 just last week alone)
- The Monster Employment Index declined in November.