Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Tricky Moment

A tricky moment here, as the long awaited clearing of S&P 1120 has been accomplished and we're finally out of the box intraday.  Of course the move happened in the time frame where almost all our rallies now take place - premarket + the first 15 minutes of the session.  For so many days in this rally all the action has been in either the first 30 minutes/premarket (lately) or the last 30 minutes (much of the summer and late spring).  Building on the premarket/first 15-30 minute move has been a rarity of late.

This initial move up, seems almost mechanical in nature - as those who know S&P 1120 is a key area mark the market to that level to draw in buy orders.  With so little energy in this market once 10 AM passes it will be interesting to see if we can have an outlier day where there is actual action in the indexes once you get past the opening 30 minutes.  As always the close will be more importand than the intraday action.

Since the move off such a large base (6 weeks now) should be large, I am going to wait a bit and see if the market can make some more gains here before adding index long exposure.  Buying breakouts on the indexes has been a huge money maker in the spring and summer, but the past 6 weeks its been more of a Whack a Mole story.  I prefer to not be a mole.  Volume is quite pathetic as Santa Claus arrives hence much of this move feels manufactured, rather than real...

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