Tuesday, December 8, 2009

S&P 500 Falls to Bottom of Month Long Range (Chart)

The S&P 500 has been stuck "in a box"  [Dec 2, 2009: Day 16 Stuck Inside the Box] for 20 sessions now; this box has roughly been S&P 1085 to 1112 using closing prices.  The early morning sell off has taken the index to the low end of this range.  Further support would be the 50 day moving average which is S&P 1078 and rising fast.  Keep in mind a very small gap at S&P 1070.

Dip buyers have been rewarded non stop for 9 months straight, so we'll see if the Pavlov dog response appears again.  Until the pattern blows up (and it will someday), traders will keep repeating what works - creatures of habit.

Another reminder, until we exit the box.... the longer the base, the stronger the ensuing move.  I am now expecting a move of 7-10%ish on the index, one way or the other, once we leave this trading range.  If only the crystal ball told me if it was going to be up or down.

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