Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Drop Below S&P 1085 Could Make Life Interesting

We are now in day 21 of living inside the "box"... but now approaching the 3rd time testing the very bottom range.  A break of this range would be interesting for multiple reasons... first, we get to finally get the heck out of this snooze fest we've had the past month.  Second, the 50 day moving average is a big support right below near 1080.  We've broken that level in July 2009 and October 2009, raising the hopes of bears... only to crush their spirits when "out of the blue buying" arrives to create 180 degree reversals back up.  And third, that small gap at S&P 1070 should be resolved, even in the bull case (you want it to fill before we can go off to the races for the Santa Claus rally

That said, a break of the 50 day moving average (broken record) "if and when" should be somewhat nefarious to the bull case, but old rules have been broken multiple times in the epic rally of 2009.  Breaks have meant nothing.  Aggressive bulls would be buying here hand over fist expecting (a) not to break out of the box or (b) a bounce off the 50 day.  As for myself, sitting on my hands until I see what develops next is fine.

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