Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Bookkeeping: Sold Off Index Long Exposure Going into Fed Day

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I am quite disappointed by the action here as I thought closing north of S&P 1112 (yesterday) would mean something.  We can't seem to really take off, or sell off... it's strange. This is now day 26 in the box if you include yesterday's "escape" (by 2 S&P points)




As we entered the week we said S&P 1112, and 1120 would be key levels.  Still waiting on the latter to get confidence on a breakout.  For now, since tomorrow is lemming (both computer and human) day and we can expect nonsense action based on if a syllable is off by 1 line in the Fed statement, I cut back the long exposure I added yesterday in various indexes - I had gone with TNA (smaller cap 3x ETF - made money), BGU (large cap 3x ETF - lost money), and some January SPY calls (lost money).  A small loss in concert.

Beating a dead horse - once we escape this range, the move should be dramatic.  As each day passes we are stuck inside said range (box), the spring is loaded.  Waiting for Santa Bernanke to light the fuse... until then, excruciating boredom.  I'm torn between protecting huge gains for the year, and trying to be greedy and slightly front run what appears to be a huge move coming, in a market that the invisible hand seems to support endlessly.

There will be no surprise tomorrow 2:15 PM - the only drama is what the market does with no new news.

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Pathetic sign of the times headline of the day i.e. watch what they do, not what they say: Bank Executives Acknowledge 'Disconnect' with Their Lobbyists Working to Gut New (Regulation) Rules

"Oh dear, you mean to say we have armies of people working Congress day and night, to make sure almost nothing changes in the status quo? Filling "re-regulation" with loopholes big enough to drive a Goldman Sachs Brinks truck through.  I'm shocked... shocked!" - Oligarch #4

Hahah... those oligarchs - always worth a laugh or two.  It was cute that 3 of them could not even fly in the night before to meet the President (so this is how the peons fly? they wait in lines? take off their shoes? have to arrive 3 hours early ... how do these peasants survive without private jet service?  Never again!) ... that would be an inconvenience.  I mean, shouldn't the President be flying to meet the oligarchs?  That would be a more appropriate representation of who really pull the strings.  Follow the money....

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