Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Bookkeeping: Selling Most of Braskem (BAK) on Quick Bounce

We just purchased Brazilian chemical maker Braskem (BAK) last Friday and already the stock is up 9%; certainly not what I expected, especially since the Bovespa index has been weak since.  Somehow we caught a stroke of luck here - other Brazilian stocks are not doing that well.  

I did not enter this position expecting a quick trade, but I am going to take what the market hands us.  Since we have such a nice gain in a matter of days, I am going to take profits on almost the entire position and then buy back on (a) a pullback or (b) a breakout over recent highs, low $17s.  As I look at the intraday chart today, at 1:30 PM the stock jumped from $16.20s to near $16.90 in a matter of minutes on very little volume.  That seems shady to me.   If it can get over low $17s I will be proven wrong and be fine with jumping back in, giving up 25 cents of appreciation... for now, I am happy to take my 9% for 2 days work and watch. 

I've sold 95% of the position in the mid $16.70s.


p.s. Speaking of "shady" do you realize almost the entire rally this week has been done in premarket? The "urgent buyer" returns, bidding up futures in his "I must buy stocks at any price" fashion....I think 90% of the move thus far this week has been before 9:30 AM when the government err, when 'people' who really want to buy this market regardless of price can move the market easily. ;)  Identical to what we saw for many months this spring when almost every day the premarket was up, by a sizeable amount... while the market did almost nothing during the regular session.  There has been no great news premarket that required 'someone' to urgently jump into the market with billions of SPY buy orders... in fact GDP was disappointing today last I checked; if anything there should of been sellers.  Hmmmmm.... ? It just always amazes me that 'people' cannot wait until 9:30 AM to get their orders in and are so happy to buy stocks they can't wait an hour or two.  Of course, trying to move the market at 10:30 AM is a lot harder than at 8:30 AM but surely that cannot be the reason.  Ahem.  I don't remember this behavior 3-4-5 years ago but then again, I guess the market was going in the "right" direction back then, on its own.

Let's see if "they" are happy to take us over S&P 1120 tomorrow in premarket.  Back to the rabbit hole.

Long Braskem in fund; no personal position

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