Friday, December 4, 2009

Bookkeeping: Restarting TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT)

Earlier this week we mentioned the RF Semiconductor Stocks were starting to wake up [Dec 2, 2009: RF Semi Stocks Back in Institutional Favor]  It looks like we've completely missed the RF Micro Devices (RFMD) train so we'll attempt to catch the last train out of the station here in TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT)

We owned all 3 players in summer, but exited them in late October when all the charts broke down.  After a month in purgatory, first Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and now their 2 peers have come back to life. TriQuint has a huge gap to work through (recall a very unfavorable reaction to earnings which I thought was a massive over reaction) , [Oct 21, 2009: TriQuint Semiconductor Destroyed in After Hours Trading] of which its at the very bottom - traditionally this is a very tough place to make progress on a chart so we'll see how it goes.  I don't have a stop loss here because these stocks can be +/- 10% in a session... we'll play it by ear eye; below $5.75 would cause concern.  The stock potentially formed a 'double bottom' with lows in early November / late November.

I've re-started a 1.8% allocation in the $6.30s.  Last time around we sold most of our stake for nice profits under $8.40 with the last batch sold for break even (post earnings blowup), around the same place we bought today. As 2009 is almost over it is time to begin looking at 2010 estimates, of which TQNT is estimated in a range of 43 to 55 cents, with median 50 cents.  If they can do that, the stock should be closer to $10 than $5 in a year.... I'd be content with $8s if it can get there in the next quarter or two.

Long TriQuint Semiconductor in fund; no personal position

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