Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Bookkeeping: Cutting Gold (GLD) Position Back

As we did with silver last Thursday, we are going to cut back our gold exposure today as it is very obvious the hot hedge fund money is moving on to the next sector to exploit.  We sold our silver exposure but kept gold to give it a few more sessions, in case it reversed - but this does not appear to be the case.  Therefore the chances of a return to the base from where both silver and gold broke out is much more likely. 

Just as with silver, we sold almost our entire position right ahead of Thanksgiving, and started buying in small pieces (0.3% here, 0.3% there) in the past 2 weeks, but had not built a major position as we wanted to see how the commodities reacted once they reached support. Our gold exposure in Powershares DB Gold Double Long (DPG) was only about a 1% of portfolio.

We'll cut this back by 90% today, and keep holding positions (0.1%ish exposure) in both silver and gold so they do not fall off our radar.   I'd expect dead cat bounces in both metals perhaps next week (inversely, the dollar is due for a rest/consolidation at some point), but both have broken their 50 day moving averages, so until proven otherwise I'd expect them to pull back over the intermediate term, rebuild a new base, and then when the dollar weakens again, start a new move up.  But that won't be a 2009 event.  For now, time is money and the tide has turned.  If you believe in the absolute correlation between the dollar and precious metals, this type of break down in the metals should bode well for the dollar in the near term as well. 

Long Powershares DB Gold Double Long, Long Ultra Silver, Long UUP Calls

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