Thursday, November 12, 2009

Same Trade as Yesterday

Groundhog Day today.

Stare at the US Dollar

Pray that it crashes so we can get the S&P 500 up through 1103.

It's about 10 AM and we are just about at the EXACT same spot we were at 10 AM yesterday.  Above S&P 1102-03ish the computers rush in with their shotgun "buy anything" style; yesterday we had a reaction that used to be normal - the "obvious play" got smacked down and we reversed.  But try try again...

Same "double top" or "double top breakout" discussion here.  If we break out above, we (like every person on Wall Street) will attempt the same trade we tried yesterday.... buy buy buy - HAL9000 is with us.

The US Peso actually broke to a new low earlier in the session but hangs on by its fingernails at its "double bottom".  All we need is Ben Bernanke to stomp on its finger, and we can kick it off the ledge.  Again one would think there would at least be a technical bounce at some point in this damaged currency.  Combined with the fact we're up every day of the month of November... you'd think there would be a reversal of fortune if even for a few days.  That would be sensible... but who needs sense?  Or is it cents?

Tim Geithner is pledging (I think for the 18th time this year) he believes in a strong dollar - I, for one, am reassured.  We've had 4 Treasury Secretaries in a row pledging their "belief" while the greenback has lost 40% of its value this decade.  Watch what they do, not what they say.

Go team anti-dollar!

EDIT 10:15 AM - I put some index shorts on for hedging purposes, will stop out of these on any strong move over S&P 1103.

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