Monday, November 2, 2009

Good News Sold, S&P Turned Back at 50 Day Moving Average

Definitely a different market character the past 2 weeks versus what we saw the previous months.  These type of "better than expected" economic reports used to crush shorts... while they were forced to cover this morning, we've since sold off and been rejected at the 50 day moving average. 

The next key point for bears will be creating a new low below those of Friday (1034).... but things certainly are very different.  I don't like the feel of this market at all, and I continue to preach extreme caution.   If this downward reversal holds up it will be the 4th in 8 sessions.  "Buy the dip" has burnt people quite a bit the past 2 weeks but they have recency bias and will continue to keep trying.  If S&P 1034 is broken, S&P 1020 should very much be in play.

We'll look to add some short exposure, nothing major, on a break to new lows if and when.  Otherwise we live in cash while this volatile market steals money from people's pockets.  I am also considering buying some long term put protection as we did 6-10 weeks ago (all of which expired nearly worthless) in case a much larger move ensues downward.  Almost did it this morning but still worried about all these news events later in the week.

EDIT 12:52 PM - and there she goes, new lows.

EDIT 2:00 PM - Epic battle here around S&P 1034.  

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