Monday, November 16, 2009

Bookkeeping: Adding to CNinsure (CISG)

Obviously this market continues to run over shorts; I cannot fathom that just two weeks ago as we entered Halloween weekend the market was breaking down, the 50 day moving average punctured, a long term trend line from the March lows to October lows had been penetrated, and we were coming off 5-6 intraday reversals (bearish) in about 10 sessions.  All forgotten in an orgy of buying as the hammering of the US dollar supersedes everything.  November has had 1 down session.

From reading the internets (sic) many people are scrambling to put on long exposure, as they have been forced to, to "keep up" for much of this rally.  The repeated pattern of V shape rallies is stunning in its both its repetition, lack of consolidation in charts, and strength in duration.  Even more stunning is how middling volume is on these rallies... in the past, rallies on average or weakening volume were to be shorted or sold into.  Now that means nothing... another old signpost that has lost relevance.

As I look through holdings to see what has lagged, one name today that has finally caught a bid is CNinsure (CISG).  We have a clear double top in October (which we sold half our position into) and then a massive swoon.  During this November run it has been acting very poorly on a relative basis, but Friday it had finally woken up.  I have added roughly a 1.5% exposure to this name in the $22.60s, as I too "chase" into stocks because that's what all the cool kids are doing.  If the stock begins to break back down below $21 we'll cut back; a break over that "double top" level - similar to what we've seen in the S&P 500 today... would be a positive and a place to add exposure.  i.e. $25+

[Aug 27, 2009: CNinsure Report Solid but Many Acquisition Costs/Benefits Running Through Numbers]
[Aug 24, 2009: CNinsure - China's Version of Prudential?]

Long CNinsure in fund; no personal position

Disclaimer: The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.

Copyright @2012