So where do we stand? We filled the gap at S&P 1058 and then broke all the way down to (near) the 50 day moving average. I expected a cursory bounce, wasn't sure if it would be at the gap or near the 50 day. Now we can see it was the 50 day. We're back up to S&P 1056 as I type.
For my timelines (not being a daytrader) the market is dead to me until we get back over S&P 1070 or break down below S&P 1050 (technically it is 1047 but I'm using round numbers to be dramatic) ;). We made the easy short trade(s), we've been stopped out of quite a bit of long exposure so our cash stake is even more massive - and a lot of individual charts have taken some serious hits. Many 50 day moving averages are now broken intraday - that can be fixed with quick reversals, but until proven otherwise we sit and observe. We're actually up for the week despite some hits on the long side... very content with that. Remember we entered the week with the largest cash position I can remember since starting in summer 2007 on the blog; that worked out perfectly. Now we have to see if that cash is going long or short in the future; but in between 1047 and 1070 it is just white noise full of HFT machines and daytraders...it will tell us nothing. Again, the pattern for 3 months straight has been vicious reversals each time we are in peril as "magical SPY buy orders come from the heavens" - if
So from here - back to staring at the dollar chart as every algorithm on Earth appears set to its whimsical tune. I have my popcorn out as stressed mutual fund managers across the land scurry for green shoots. Maybe we can get a surprise Federal Reserve drop in interest rates to create a "prosperous" manipulation of markets back up at this critical juncture ? Oh wait... nevermind.
