Monday, October 5, 2009

Portfolio Positions with Yellow Caution Tag Attached

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Last week's sell off has put some of our long positions into a bit more precarious positions on their charts. I am going to list the names who we have to watch closely. Tactically I enjoy buying stocks as they fall back to support, which puts me at odds with 90% of Wall Street (and their machines) which seems to be all about momentum chasing (buy high, sell higher). The issue with my strategy is what is a stock falling back to its support Tuesday is a stock that breaks support Wednesday. And/or a stock that bounces right back over support by Friday. So we get whipsawed a lot around these inflection points which is no big deal (transaction costs are so cheap nowadays), but in terms of writing a blog I might have a few positions it looks like I am reversing my opinion on every 2nd or 3rd day.

Here are the names that fall into 2 categories

(A) Stocks that have fallen back to support (or broken it very briefly) and thus far held; could be poised for more trouble if the market doesn't begin to surge again. Stocks in this category I have typically had limit buy orders which hit late last week.

(B) Stocks that have broken through support but no reason to throw in the towel yet; however we'd like to see them regain their moving average in very short order. Otherwise they actually become more attractive as technical short set ups. Stocks in this category I have typically had stop loss orders to curtail a position, which hit late last week.

Ironically both these stock pre announced positive information on their quarters - the wonders of the market never cease.


Most everything else we own on technical merit has a chart like this which is a "all systems go" chart:


Long all names mentioned in fund; no personal position


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