Friday, October 30, 2009

Intraday Bounce at S&P 1034

Just an update... we fell to S&P 1034 earlier in the session - about 1:30 PM - this marked the low of the day... bounced... and now just hit S&P 1034 again 5 minutes ago. 

On an intraday chart we are either about to make a double bottom (bullish) or break to a new low (bearish.  No different than a normal chart we look at, except its INTRAday rather than INTERday.  Due to the nature of the frantic session, we're switching to a much shorter time frame to decide what to do in the closing hour.

[click to enlarge]


If S&P 1034 is the floor, I'll actually start covering / selling our puts because it could be a frantic move up on technical measures.  I don't think we'd go green but we could go well into the 1040s.  If 1034 breaks, we're heading to the S&P 1020s.

S&P 1034 is the line in the sand for these last 50 minutes.

I'll edit this post with any decisions.


EDIT 3:30 PM - covered TNA / sold all puts as S&P bounces to 1038; looks like a bounce off1034 for now

will rejoin short positions BELOW 1034 if and when ...otherwise wait til next week.  That's 4 S&P points away so good enough for us. Otherwise one can go long here for a quick trade as there is room to mid / upper 1040s -  but I am done for the day with my victory cigar. (virtual of course)   I'll be reshorting on any move to upper 1040s Monday and repeat the same thing we just pulled off with a clearly defined exit just over the 50 day.

Rough approximation of this afternoon's plunder below - both SPY puts sold, and TNA was covered. [this is not our exact tally since everything is 20 minutes delayed in terms of display]  (click to enlarge as always)

p.s. thanks to the readers who donated this week; glad to see you guys (and gal) making money.

I'll leave you with a note from Ken Wolff at posted today at 3:26 PM - this should sound familiar; I was saying this 18 months ago.

Ken Wolff
10/30/2009 3:26 PM EDT

This is one of the toughest trading markets I have seen in nearly 20 years of watching the market intensely, every day, tick by tick... I believe its because of the growth of hedge funds and program trading... Its really tough to stay on top of complex Algorithms... For a large part of this market, fundamental common sense is lacking...

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