Friday, September 4, 2009

Can You Hear People Exiting the Offices?

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I expect a very quiet day from here as the traditional early morning ramp up (+0.5%) is now in place and we can trade in a 2-4 S&P point range for the next 5 hours, until 3:30 PM shows up. NYC and Greenwich, CT quietly shall be emptying by the minute as people leave early for the long weekend. Thankfully computers do not need to make the drive to Martha's Vineyard so they can continue working. I see no interesting corporate news and every position in my portfolio except one is trading in a concise range of +/- 1%.

I'll be working on some catch up posts today to post, that I have not had time to get to earlier since we are back to what I call the Siesta Market (i.e. you can take a nap mid day). [The Dead in the Middle of the Day Market] Run the market up in the first 60-90 minutes, leave at 11AM, let the HFT traders milk the system for 4-5 hours pushing stocks back and forth in tight ranges, working thousands of trades a second while collecting mad money, and then turn the market back on at 3:30 PM, preferably rocketing it up 0.5% or so in a last minute flurry to finish the day on a positive note.

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I have been doing some thinking and after backtesting this over the past 6 months, my mutual fund shall only be operational 29 minutes a day. In fact I shall call it "The 29 Minute Fund". I shall buy SPY ETFs at 3:30 PM, and sell them at 3:59 PM each day. The backtesting shows this to have a 81.27219821% success rate the past 6 months. That is not Goldman Sachs (97%) good, but it's a pretty sweet success rate.

After that fund brings in a few billion I'll launch a sister fund: "The Siesta Fund" in which I'll buy SPY ETFs premarket 9:00 AMish and sell them by 10:30 AM to 11:00 AM after the market is run up on economic news of the day (if economic news is good bad or indifferent is a moot point, the market goes up almost all the time in those hours). Then the fund will shut down between 11 AM and 3:30 PM, while I drink some fruity colored beverages and do interviews on CNBC about my prowess (don't worry, I'll say "buy stocks" at the end of every interview). I'll then get back to work, with the fund mimicking the strategy of the "29 Minute Fund" 3:30 PM to 3:59 PM. The expense ratio on this fund will be double that of "The 29 Minute Fund" because I am doing double the work. The success ratio of this has been 77.21218921% as I backtest the past 6 months.

You think I kid? Try it yourself - it is almost like clockwork.

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