To see historic weekly fund changes click here OR the label at the bottom of this entry entitled 'fund positions'.
Cash: 74.1% (vs 72.1% last week)
26 long bias: 21.2% (vs 22.1% last week)
7 short bias: 4.7% (vs 5.8% last week)
33 positions (vs 34 last week)
Weekly thoughts
Keeping it short this week First to our 2 charts, simple versus exponential....
On the Exponential moving averages, it is a quite negative picture - all key moving averages have been broken and we are holding dearly onto the "neck" of our head and shoulders formation. I will say, there is room for a bounce however to anywhere in the low S&P 890s to low 900s so until S&P 870 is broken it is hard to get aggressively short because of that reflex bounce. Especially considering this market will "move" in afterhours as much as during the day I anticipate with the slew of earnings reports coming.
On the Simple moving averages, we are still clutching to the 200 day moving average. Ironically, the slope of this marker is falling so quickly that the market can keep going down, yet "hold" support. This continues to be the case, but barely.
The economic slate is extremely heavy this week but I expect earnings to dominate. On the economic front we have inflation figures (PPI, CPI), June retail sales (which again I always get a laugh at the attention considering the actual retail companies reported the previous week and we quickly forget it and focus on what the government tells us is retail sales), Fed minutes, June industrial production, housing starts and building permits.S&P 500 type companies dominate the first 3 weeks of earnings, and then we get to smaller and/or foreign names in the latter part of the period. One very nice thing the past few weeks has been the lack of "gap up" or "down" futures in premarket. So many days in January or February we were gapping down 10 to 15 S&P points, and vice versa in March, April and parts of May. I do expect that to change now as we take 1 companies earnings and extrapolate the entire US market's health on said company, either pro or con.
As for positioning I am still playing small and just trying to catch some intraday moves with a smallish portion of the portfolio. Which is another reason I am enjoying the lack of huge moves in premarket because many days this year 80% of the move has been done premarket (or in the post 3:30 PM half hour) I see a lot of oversold charts; very damaged charts but you could see where a bounce into resistance could happen. I still have a bevy of short limit orders waiting if we do get those bounces for intermediate purposes. Otherwise the plan is to attack short below S&P 870 which has been the floor of last week.
