Monday, July 13, 2009

Bookkeeping: Closing Atwood Oceanics (ATW)

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"Reflation" trade is going on week 4 of infamy. We don't have much in this aisle - especially after dropping the fertilizer stocks 2 weeks ago but I am going to close out a tiny position in Atwood Oceanics (ATW) as well. All we had remaining was a 0.2% stake; I am leaving around $23.40. Which is more or less where we restarted the position [May 7, 2009: Bookkeeping - Restarting Atwood Oceanics] This is a pretty simple chart for me; we'd want to see Atwood get back over $25 to show strength; otherwise it is under a mountain of resistance.


Atwood Oceanics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the offshore drilling and completion of exploratory and developmental oil and gas wells worldwide.

I expect Atwood to simply move with the program traders who move in and out of one of the more popular ETFs which similarly can bounce to the mid to upper $90s but it would simply be an oversold dead cat bounce until otherwise proven. I don't have enough exposure in Atwood for it to really matter at this point even if this bounce occurs.

I will be looking to buy this reflation trade merchandise back if the computers show favor to them again and their charts improve OR they take some serious hits, on the order of 20%+ lower from here in the coming 6-8 weeks. While I don't like buying "broken charts" if these stocks plummet you can be assured they will rebound the NEXT time the reflation trade is back on... we're just repeating the same pattern over and over the past year+.

But for now, outside of a smallish oversold bounce I don't see much upside here; if proven otherwise I'll jump back in some names when they clear resistance areas.

No position

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