Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Head & Shoulders Formation Almost Perfect

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Last Thursday I had mentioned we had a high probability of a head and shoulders formation forming on the S&P 500. I said

On the S&P 500 we have a potential head and shoulders formation being created with the right shoulder forming now (technical goobly glock) - this would be broken if - again - we can break back north of S&P 940s area. S&P 915-925 would be where I'd expect the market to fill in the right shoulder and then from there we wait to see what happens next.


This is what the chart looked like then


I had tagged S&P 915-925 as the "right shoulder" - we closed yesterday at 927, and briefly traded up this morning but if we don't get over S&P 930 ... I'll consider it close enough for government work.

This is what it looks like today:


For those not familiar with technical analysis this is a negative outlook in the intermediate term, marking a general exhaustion of buyers and a pending reversal. Once the "neck" is broken you tend to have some very hefty selloffs.

If indeed the squiggly line analysis is correct, S&P 880 is the line in the sand bulls will want to hold on any major pullback - where we broke out from in April and multiple tests of it in May.

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