Going in for a 3.5% stake here at $13.30s, will stop out (again) below the 20 day moving average ... so $12.80.
As for the general market, we are overdue for some bounce after the strongest selling in months - we are back over S&P 900 which will make bulls happy and this morning of course we jumped up on some nonsensical guess on world growth by some organization. Two days ago we fell down on some nonsensical guess on world growth by ... some organization - just a different one.And that's how the casino rolls.
In "my" world (exponential) we bounced off the 50 day moving average, as I noted yesterday - we did trade intraday below S&P 894 which head faked me, but we closed above... nice save. Again. So now we can bounce some. Potential to S&P 915?
In the "simple moving average" world its a more bullish story. Potential to S&P 925 perhaps?
I would normally expect a strong reaction at the Fed meeting today but I can't imagine anything they say that will be surprising. Most likely just a statement saying while the economy is improving we will still hand out easy money for a very long time, including all this year - perhaps to dissuade those already pricing in Fed fund increases by the end of 09.As for the portfolio its about 30% long, almost nothing short and a huge amount of cash. I'd like to see 'reflation trades' rebound here, because many charts are actually setting up for shorts now that their primary trend has been broken. But these are deeply oversold. Remember you only need to watch one stock for "reflation".
But look we have broken charts now in many spots... Potash (POT) looks enticing at a short (sell) around $98. If it fills that gap up at $106 than I'll say kudos, I was wrong.
So for today, its "reflation" again (yawn), and in 2 days who knows - it will be abandoned or a new leg of the same old.Despite the 50 day moving average crossing over the 200 day which is a bullish thing - I am going to be looking to sell into this bounce. Until / unless we get over S&P 940 I don't buy it.... the slope of the 200 day people are using (simple) is awful and its not your typical "golden cross" as its called. And on the exponential chart the 50 day is not even within a zip code of the 200 day.
That said, I'll change my mind if we cross over the 200 day on the exponential chart.
p.s. have to remind myself its end of the quarter so "mark up" time is the 2-4 days before the last day. We are now in day 4, tomorrow will be 3, Friday 2, and Monday 1. Then they won't do it on Tuesday the 30th because thats the only day the SEC apparently cares about fake prices ;)
Long Yingli Green Energy. Potash in fund; no personal position
