Friday, May 22, 2009

Excel Maritime (EXM) With Upside to Earnings

I don't play the "make a big bet ahead of earnings so I have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing" game but Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) responded very favorably last night in after hours (+12%) to their earnings report. Therefore, as I expect the fireworks to continue today - we'll only be participating in a limited role.

This is certainly not an apples to apples comparison (year over year) as the # of vessels operating skyrocketed. Basically the story with EXM is to keep amending credit facilities until global trade resumes at least 2005-2006 levels, and each time green shoots appear to make a big run in terms of stock price. Everything else is just meaningless details at this point. Unlike DryShips (DRYS) these guys have not had to dilute their shareholders from here to Athens to "stay alive". Of course the minute I say that, a share offering should be arriving within a week ;) Full report here.
  • (a lot more boats, but a drastic drop in rates... as expected) An average of 47.8 vessels operated during the first quarter of 2009 earning a blended average time charter equivalent rate of $21,024 per day, compared to an average of 18 vessels operated during the first quarter of 2008 earning a blended average time charter equivalent rate of $41,767 per day.
  • (big adjustment that made revenue look far better than it was) Included in revenues for the first quarter of 2009 are $129.1 million of non-cash revenues relating to the amortization of unfavorable time charters that were fair valued upon acquiring Quintana.
Debt update
  • During the first quarter of 2009, we amended our two credit facilities with Nordea Bank and Credit Suisse Bank and secured all the appropriate covenant waivers for these credit facilities until January 1, 2011. As part of the loan amendments entities affiliated with the family of our Chairman of the Board of Directors have injected $45.0 million in the Company.

Via Reuters
  • Greek dry bulk carrier Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM) posted a more than three-fold jump in first-quarter profit, helped by a 34 percent rise in voyage revenue, sending its shares up as much as 11 percent.
  • The Athens-based company reported a quarterly profit of $118 million, or $2.57 a share, compared with $35.1 million, or $1.76 a share, last year. Voyage revenue came in at $92.8 million. According to Reuters Estimates, the company earned 95 cents a share, trumping analysts' average estimate of 9 cents a share, both of which excludes an unrealized swap gain, a gain from the sale of a vessel and amortization of favourable and unfavourable time charters.
  • Total revenue nearly quadrupled to $222.1 million. First-quarter revenue includes $129.1 million in non-cash revenue.
  • Excel Maritime said it secured 67 percent of its operating days for 2009 and 55 percent for 2010 under time charter employment.
Long Excel Maritime Carrier in fund; no personal position

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