And many more in the 15-20%+ type of gain range.
Our old holding in A-Power Energy (APWR) which we waited month after month to move, finally is doing so. Of course, without us.
More and more lower quality fare is now exploding higher... without sounding like a granny clucking warnings, that generally is behavior we see nearer to end of moves. Combining this with shorts who are being blasted out of position after position we have the potential to be setting up for a speculative intermediate top relatively soon. But just as trying to go long a few days too early in late February and early March 2009 could cost you 10% in the blink of an eye, the same can be said now in the opposite direction. Since I don't like chasing stocks that are up 50% in 4 days it is hard for me to find new positions to buy on the long side, even if I am predicting upside to S&P 870. Which, I can almost predict shall happen tomorrow AM with Government Sachs (GS) of course printing a better than expected number.
So to summarize
- Worst of breed financials (sub $5) or Chinese stocks with fundamentals most traders could care less about running like mad
- Shorts running into walls aflame in pain
- Goldman Sachs is going to take their AIG payoffs, FASB rule changes, on top of all their normal chicanery - and create singing CNBC anchors tomorrow morning
5 comments:
Are you considering playing any of these Chinese small caps for a quick trade. Today is more or less the first day of this type of speculative action...these can pull off some big multi-day moves. Some of the other names moving on the day are JRJC, CPSL, CHNR, KUN, SEED, WX.
Not really for this type of vehicle. It's so short term focused; many of these things double and then lose 80% of their value on the next downturn. I'd have to buy a huge basket of them because some don't move for days and then in 2 days triple, while others are falling 40%. More for a gambling hall but certainly they can be played on momentum.
I actually owned WX for fundamental reasons once but yes you listed a good list, and ther are about 20 others in that arena.
if apwr is one of the worst quality chinese stocks that most traders could care less about,
how come it was one of your earlier holdings?
A lapse of judgement, perhaps?
The difference between now and October 2007 is that back then, S&P was sitting at 1500.
Hi Anon
I did not mean to imply APWR was a bad quality name - otherwise I would not of sat in it for months. I was simply implying things were so frothy even APWR is running.
APWR, WX, JRJC and the like are actually quite solid but get thrown in with about 30 other names , 20 of which are just junk.
Unfortunately, this market has done a terrible job of discerning between one or the other for a long time.
Post a Comment