Some Link Economy with Spate of Killings

Long time readers will know I've been calling for a major rise in social acrimony long before it was fashionable - in fact I was doing it in 2007 before most economists (and the Federal Reserve) even acknowledged a recession was possible. [Dec 31, 2007: 13 Outlier 2008 Predictions]

Workers are outraged, but CEOs say "well that's how it works" - we get the reward from our dumb decisions, you get the pain. Social acrimony in this country only continues to increase. Another round of major layoffs hits in summer as the spring "housing boom" never materializes.

Again last summer [Jul 23, 2008: Experts Tell Congress What I've Been Telling Blog Readers for a Year]

CNNMoney.com: U.S. Middle Class 'On the Edge' This article sounds vaguely familiar ;) or long time readers - no need to read the article - it is almost verbatim from the blog. We used the first half of the decade using our homes to cover the shortfall (house ATM) that has been slowly growing (erosion of living standard) - now its the credit cards.

I cannot stress enough, this is an era very similar to right before the Great Depression - the highest % of wealth in the upper 0.5% and the highest proportion of national output in form of corporate profits (versus workers wages). Not saying we will be entering a new Great Depression but simply saying it will be a struggle for the great many if trends stay intact - even if they continue sideways (they do not need to degrade).

I continue to believe if trends persist, social acrimony will finally become a major factor in this country as it has in many others. The pressure is slowly filtering up the economic strata food chain and capturing more and more families. When it hits critical mass is anyone's guess.

And in many other articles ....

Early this week I began a position in a gun maker [Apr 6: Bookkeeping - Starting Position in Smith & Wesson] - not so much that I think guns are any solution - but because I could see Wall Street jumping on this theme if things really begin to degrade. Remember, as we discussed last week there will be a disassociation between the "Wall Street" universe and "Main Street" - on Wall Street it is celebrated as you cut costs; that increases profits. Not so much on Main Street. I posted a video about the large rash of mass killings in the span of a month. I am worried about this summer since the hot weather combined with the duration of unemployment where many will be out of work for long periods of time and realizing they cannot find a new job of any level, sets up a high probability of mentally breaking down people. Desperation and/or feeling as if you have nothing to lose breeds bad outcomes - especially when people are seeing others in far better positions, bailout out. Again I hope I am wrong.

My personal belief based on my study of the economic numbers (as I've outlined countless times in the blog) is many people have in the lower and middle classes of "middle class" been struggling for a long time; and many have felt the "American Dream" is no longer there for them, or their kids. Which was the "contract" America always had - even if you work like a dog, your kids will benefit. Many no longer see this from both local experience and reading "normal people's" stories online. All the while "aggregate" economic numbers have been "just fine" - due to the disproportionate dispersion of wealth which mimics conditions of the late 1920s. That's the tinder box I see set up... my worry is this recession will be the matches.

I came upon this story from the Washington Post which also postulates I could be on to something with the connection between the mass killings over the past month and the economy.

• In Binghamton, N.Y., a Vietnamese immigrant upset about losing his job burst into an immigration center and killed 13 people before killing himself. In Pittsburgh, police said a gun enthusiast recently discharged from the Marine Corps opened fire and killed three police officers. And in Graham, Wash., investigators said a man whose wife was leaving him shot and killed five of his children in their mobile home before taking his own life.
• The carnage that occurred during less than 48 hours last week capped a recent string of unusually brazen mass killings, which crime experts say have touched more people and occurred in more public settings than in any time in recent memory.
  
• Comparative statistics are difficult to come by, but during the past month alone, at least eight mass homicides in this country have claimed the lives of 57 people. Just yesterday, four people were discovered shot to death in a modest wood-frame home in a remote Alabama town.
• The factor underlying the violence, some experts think, is the dismal state of the nation's economy. Criminologists theorize that the epidemic of layoffs, the meltdown of storied American corporations and the uncertainty of recovery have stoked fear, anxiety and desperation across society and unnerved its most vulnerable and dangerous.
• "I've never seen such a large number [of killings] over such a short period of time involving so many victims," said Jack Levin, a noted criminologist at Northeastern University who has authored or co-authored eight books on mass murder.
• The simple fact, criminologist James Alan Fox said, is that more Americans are struggling. "The American dream to them is a nightmare, and the land of opportunity is but a cruel joke," said Fox. "The economic pie is shrinking to the point where it looks more like a Pop Tart and some feel all they're getting is the crumbs. There's a combination of feeling despair and hopelessness at the same time as a certain degree of anger and blame."

But let's be fair, & look at the other side of the coin as well...

• Other crime experts caution, however, against drawing such conclusions. "Because homicides are fairly rare, it is hard to see patterns even when ones exist," said Shawn Bushway, a criminologist at the University of Albany. "It's like reading tea leaves. I don't make much of it. I don't think you can say anything definitively one way or another."
• "The common denominator in all these is that they're all using a gun," Helmke said of the recent killings. "You don't see police officers in Pittsburgh being killed by people throwing knives at them. . . . We've always had violence, but in the old days you couldn't take out so many people so quickly. Now we make it very easy to do that."

Summary

• Experts agree that most mass murderers share one trait: a traumatic event such as a layoff, divorce or separation that sets off an internal rage and a desire for revenge. "There are just simply more catastrophic losses than there were when the economy was in good shape."