Sunday, April 5, 2009

The Meek Shall Inherit the Earth: 92 Stocks Over $10 Returning 60%+ in the Past Month & 35 Truly Meek Below $10

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I thought a screen of the best performing stocks over the past month would be appropriate at this time as we've just exited the best 4 week period since the 1930s. (while still down on the year) There have been a lot of ".... since the 1930s" going on the past year and a half so it's only appropriate we continue to swing from one emotional extreme to another. We said a month ago we were at a historic "near 40%" divergence from the 200 day moving average and the rubber band was pulled like no other time in history - and boy have we "reverted to the mean".

Once more the calls for a return of the consumer/housing resonate in the air - because "stock prices know all" and "the market knows better than any individual" hmmm... where have I heard that before? [Sep 11, 2008: Hot Money Says a Housing Turn is Coming Soon]

The data points say "no recovery" and the executives in many cases say "no recovery" but that doesn't stop hot money from piling in, assuming a "recovery in 6 months". Maybe it's true, maybe it's not. If March 2009 marks the bottom in housing I'll come on and say "I was wrong - what an idiot I was, the American consumer is far better than I imagined." But it really doesn't matter if March 2009 will be a bottom because people are making money assuming so today - perception is reality. Remember, there is so much institutional money now, to make any real money, you need to out anticipate the out anticipators and buy ahead of everyone else it appears.


Oh thesis buyers... what happened right after early September 2008 when the "stock prices were Oracle like in nature" telling us of the coming recovery in housing and the consumer? I do believe a crash of epic proportion. Thankfully I won't have to apologize for the "March 2009" bottom that stock prices were "signaling" back then in their "all knowing" nature. But nevermind those... those... facts! We'll keep hissing about recoveries in 6 months until we get it right. Eventually it has to work out! Then we can crow. So we'll keep running up these consumer discretionary names until it's actually the right call! (even if "they've" run these same groups up prematurely 4x since the bear market began) Just keep repeating the mantra: stock prices know all, and if you doubt them - you are a heathen who does not understand The Oracle. Worked like a charm the past year and a half.

So below are really two lists - the main list have the following criteria; below the main list I've pulled some huge gainers from the true junk pile; same criteria as below but $0 to $10 stock price range. This assumes after their enormous one month gains they were under $5 a month ago. Frankly I'll be using these lists to start devising good stocks to short after the "all we need is less bad news than last month and that means all is well" cry turns into "ok, now we actually need to see a real recovery " anguish.

Criteria
  1. Market capitalization $800M+
  2. Average trading volume 200K+
  3. Stock price $10+
  4. Return this month 60%+
Symbol Company Name % Price Change Last Month
BCS Barclays ADR 210.5
STP Suntech Power Holdings ADR 162.2
LAMR Lamar Advertising Co 127.0
PAG Penske Automotive Group Inc 125.5
ASH Ashland Inc 124.5
TXI Texas Industries Inc 111.9
PRU Prudential Financial Inc 109.5
DB Deutsche Bank AG 108.0
MET MetLife Inc 107.4
CTV CommScope Inc 105.3
OC Owens Corning 99.8
HOG Harley-Davidson Inc 98.8
CE Celanese Corp 98.2
PUK Prudential ADR rep 2 ord shs 93.6
PNC PNC Financial Services Group 93.4
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd 92.5
AXA Axa ADR 90.7
WFC Wells Fargo & Co 89.8
SIG Signet Group PLC 89.4
HBI Hanesbrands Inc 89.4
MHK Mohawk Industries Inc 87.8
ALV Autoliv Inc 86.1
STT State Street Corp 84.5
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co 83.8
AMB AMB Property Corp 83.7
THO Thor Industries Inc 82.2
USB US Bancorp (Del) 81.1
SNDK SanDisk Corp 80.9
CNH CNH Global NV 80.8
UTR Unitrin Inc 80.7
SFD Smithfield Foods Inc 79.6
MW Men's Wearhouse Inc 79.5
KBH KB Home 78.5
MFC Manulife Financial Corp 78.4
JEF Jefferies Group Inc 75.5
WHR Whirlpool Corp 74.8
CLR Continental Resources Inc(Oklahoma) 73.8
ZION Zions Bancorp 73.6
PFG Principal Financial Group Inc 73.2
GES Guess? Inc 73.2
HXM Desarrolladora Homex DR 72.8
PII Polaris Industries Inc 72.5
MDP Meredith Corp 72.2
BGC General Cable Corp 71.9
UNM Unum Group 71.6
RJF Raymond James Financial Inc 71.0
JCI Johnson Controls Inc 70.5
TUP Tupperware Brands Corp 70.5
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd 70.2
MWV MeadWestvaco Corp 69.7
WBC WABCO Holdings Inc 69.6
PVH Phillips-Van Heusen Corp 69.5
TMK Torchmark Corp 69.0
HOT Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide 68.9
KB Kookmin Bank 68.4
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle Inc 68.4
CS Credit Suisse Group ADR 67.8
WDR Waddell & Reed Financial, Inc 67.6
EAT Brinker International Inc 67.5
OI Owens Illinois Inc 67.2
GFA Gafisa ADR Representing 2 Ord Shs 67.0
MGA Magna International Inc 66.5
SHG Shinhan Financial ADR 66.4
DHI D.R. Horton Inc 66.4
COF Capital One Financial Corp 66.3
EV Eaton Vance Corp 66.1
HAR Harman International Industries Inc 64.9
EMN Eastman Chemical Co 64.7
OLN Olin Corp 64.3
BYI Bally Technologies Inc 64.1
SFG Stancorp Financial Group Inc 63.5
TRN Trinity Industries Inc 63.5
RIMM Research In Motion Ltd 63.2
BBY Best BUY Co Inc 62.9
LTD Limited Brands Inc 62.8
BDK Black & Decker Corp 62.8
TEL Tyco Electronics Ltd 62.7
LBTYA Liberty Global Inc 62.7
BWA BorgWarner Inc 62.3
JCP JC Penney Co Inc 62.2
R Ryder System Inc 62.2
JCG J Crew Group Inc 62.2
SLF Sun Life Financial Inc 61.8
IVZ Invesco Holding Co Ltd 61.6
ADS Alliance Data Systems Corp 61.5
CYT Cytec Industries Inc 61.0
AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc 60.9
RVBD Riverbed Technology Inc 60.7
WLL Whiting Petroleum Corp 60.5
WMS WMS Industries Inc 60.5
WY Weyerhaeuser Co 60.4
JWN Nordstrom Inc 60.2


Now for the truly meek; I just grabbed a list of sub $10 stocks who generated at least 90% gains - 35 "winners" made the list. Again the fact that AIG even has public shares for people to make money on (along with Fannie and Freddie) is a mockery unto itself.

Symbol Company Name % Price Change Last Month
IRE Bank Of Ireland ADR 410.2
AIB Allied Irish Bks Depository Receipt 252.8
AIG American International Group Inc 225.7
FDML Federal Mogul Corp 178.7
C Citigroup Inc 176.7
FIG Fortress Investment Group LLC 175.9
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd 163.8
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp 154.3
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp 153.1
IFX Infineon Technol Depository Receipt 151.0
BAC Bank of America Corp 142.0
HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc 141.4
GNW Genworth Financial Inc 140.5
MGM MGM Mirage 133.7
ING ING Groep American 133.2
TCK Teck Cominco Ltd 127.1
HTZ Hertz Global Holdings Inc 116.5
STX Seagate Technology 116.4
USG USG Corp 116.3
JAVA Sun Microsystems Inc 114.9
GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co 110.8
ACF AmeriCredit Corp 110.6
WYN Wyndham Worldwide Corp 108.9
XL XL Capital Ltd 107.8
LYG Lloyds Banking Group ADR 106.4
MBI MBIA Inc 104.7
CBG CB Richard Ellis Group Inc 99.2
TXT Textron Inc 97.9
MAS Masco Corp 96.4
EK Eastman Kodak Co 95.1
IP International Paper Co 94.6
JBL Jabil Circuit Inc 93.3
CTCM CTC Media Inc 93.1
F Ford Motor Co 91.2
MI Marshall & Ilsley Corp 90.9


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