Friday, April 17, 2009

Bookkeeping: Selling Most of Remaining Baidu.com (BIDU)

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Baidu.com (BIDU) has had a nice run and I am going to sell just about all of the remaining position as we get close to the 200 day moving average around $213. Expunging all but 1 share around $210. This stock has been a buy on each dip to the 20 day moving average the past month which is currently under $190... if we get a dip there or the stock races through the 200 day moving average I will re-enter.

With the market up relentlessly and all earnings reports now gobbled up as "great" or at least "better than expected" the bar is being set higher and higher. It's going to be tougher for companies to just walk in and say "we don't plan to go bankrupt anytime soon" and see their stocks race up 40% on "better than expected". The action in the market is still bullish so for the intermediate term you have to remain positive on "price action" but in the short term I'm looking for a 7-8% type of correction probably to low S&P 800s sometime in the next 2-8 days. Just a guess, but this remarkable run has turned bulls invincible and now that shorts are cowering to even attempt to fight the market, we are setting the right conditions to falter sooner rather than later.

From there I expect a range bound market in a very wide range for the next few months as "paper printing prosperity" (P cubed) will push up valuations, commodities, and economic data above where it belongs. Later in the year when we need to see actual growth instead of "improvement over the worse ever reading we just experienced in history" I expect a new leg down to begin. That's my broad 40,000 foot view - this is going to be one big recession interspersed with such a tsunami of government intervention, especially of the Federal Reserve kind, that it will look like a W shaped double dip. I don't think the 2nd dip will be as severe as this one simply because so many jobs will be shed in the first leg - but the second part will just be a period of blah with a jobless (ex government created jobs) "recovery".

Long Baidu.com in fund; no personal position

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