Friday, April 3, 2009

Bookkeeping: Sacrificing some REIT Exposure to Volcano Gods; Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Too

Taking some serious hits on the REIT side... going to throw some sacrifices to the Volcano gods here in all 5 REIT positions. Right now I see daytraders rushing in on the long side, and many stocks in many sectors in the $2-$10 range flying high. This has all the signs of a blow off top type of action but it just keeps going. Speculation is back and judging by how fast these Las Vegas stocks are running technical resistance means nothing when so many people are covering at once. So they are squeezing me as well.

I'm covering anywhere from 1/3rd to 1/2th in all 5 REITs we own, with significant dollar and % losses in each - many are up 15%+ today alone after ramping yesterday as well.

I also cut back Wynn Resorts (WYNN) since it broke through resistance as if it was not even there. We shorted a lot of this yesterday at $26 when it resistance - cut through it like it was not even there.

The S&P 500 is now over its 100 day moving average for the first time since... a long time. (832 or so) - as long as that holds and there is no fear on the long side it will be tough to be short except for quick pullbacks. I thought there would be *some* rest before we made a run to S&P 870 but this is relentless buying; if not in the big caps its now moved to the small caps in a big way. Now I have to see some sort of blowoff top ... thought it would be here by now, but incorrect.

Hopefully I am selling at the top, but I don't want to give up a months worth of work to a horde of bulls. There appears to be no fear of buying anything right now. What is scary from the short side is moving averages mean nothing right now as stocks rocket right through them. Therefore a typical roadmap is useless.

This has been a bad week, first one I can remember in a long time. Poorly played.

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