Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Bookkeeping: Restarting Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM)

I am not sure why I decided to completely sell out of Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) rather than keep a typical holding position (i.e. 0.1% stake) I sold out right about the exact same spot I am restarting it here [Apr 9: Bookkeeping: Closing Last of Excel Maritime Carriers off Earnings Jump] With their covenant situation taken care of to a large degree, they are a decent value although I believe this move is extremely long in the tooth and it feels greedy to play this sector at this point.

Technically, it ran after I sold it to near $6.80 and quickly formed a "double top" (bearish) from which it has retreated. You can also clearly see it was beaten back at resistance (100 day moving average). On the other hand it has bounced off support levels twice in the past week and a half... so essentially it is boxed in. Battle plan on this chart is simple - cut back below $6.00, add on strength over $7.50... and between those two spots just trade it. For now I created a 1.5% stake near $6.80.

Excel Maritime Carriers, Ltd., a shipping company, engages in the ownership and operation of bulk carrier vessels. The company provides seaborne transportation services for dry bulk cargoes, such as iron ore, coal and grain, steel products, fertilizers, cement, bauxite, sugar, and scrap metal. As of May 15, 2008, its fleet consisted of 47 vessels comprising 4 Capesize, 14 Kamsarmax, 21 Panamax, 2 Supramax, and 6 Handymax with a total carrying capacity of approximately 3.7 million deadweight tonnage.

[Feb 10, 2009: Dry Bulk Shippers - Time to Get Back In?]

As for the market, we are back just like that to the top end of our range... the Fed (the powers from Mount Olympus) deliver their wisdom at 2:15 PM at which time speculators from all across the land will act in hair trigger, knee jerk ways that make little sense and have nothing to do with investing. We are close enough to S&P 875 "the breakout point" I am sure the administration (Goldman Sachs approved) wants to see us get over so as I said on the weekend summary

S&P 875 is an all important number and every HAL9000 throughout the country will be hair triggered to be a buyer above. And since this casino always knee jerks herky jerky to a Fed announcement as if 180 words changes the world outlook, if we are anywhere near that level Wed 2:00 PM I expect a push through on one of the 3-4 headfakes that always accompy this magic announcement.

And that's how the USSA rolls. Amazing how this is working out like clockwork... to the day, to the minute... up 2% on a -6.1% GDP and no great news overnight. Poised now to break that nasty S&P 875 barrier when the herd rushes in at 2:15 PM. It's almost as if it's all planned... ahem.

Long Excel Maritime in fund; no personal position

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