Right now I don't have a very good feel for this market, because the ethos of the consumer is back - which I highly disagree with - are lending strength to areas of the market I dislike the most over the intermediate term. Then last Friday the market held key level S&P 825 and even the 100 day moving average (832) only to reverse down. Making things ever more tricky is almost every morning we now gap up or down 1-2% so your entire portfolio is marked in one direction or another based on mood swings. So I envision as I build shorts back up, we will gap up 2% tomorrow on some nonsense "better than expected" result and the technical condition will turn back to "bullish". And we'll be in the wrong spot yet again. So to hedge some of these short positions I am trying to slowly build up some long exposure back into individual names that have corrected a bit; which we took profits in last week. I keep waiting for some sideways action within a wide range lasting a few weeks....Working on finding my bearings - my bullish leaning going into the week based on key support levels being held was proven a false idol. S&P 825 is a pivot point for me; I would expect weakness below it and strength above it but thus far this week that has proven to be incorrect. There is such a disconnect between what I believe lies ahead for the economy and the rampaging bulls. After the euphoria of "we are seeing improvement over the worst readings in history" wears off, I am trying to figure out what the bulls will use next as a "stimulant". If bulls are going to clutch onto CEOs saying "we see improvement in the 2nd half" - I'd remind them that no one has a clue about the 2nd half; it's just guesswork.
Very tricky environment and times like this make me savor when it seems so easy.
6 comments:
I've noticed your shares of SRS and FAZ, Aren't you concerned about the uptick rule ruling that will be going on tommorow? I know technically hedge funds have had ways around these, but do you expect SRS & FAZ to dip temporarily tomorrow based on the psychological effect of the ruling?
Generally once people know about a ruling its already priced into the mkt. Now that has not been the case with Geithner plan nor FASB changes, but over the years that has been the case
As for the actual rule its a joke
If I'm a hedge fund computer all I do is short 100,000 shares, buy 1 share, short 100,000 shares, buy 1 share - all day and all night. uptick rule useless.
Wait until Turbo Timmys PPIP shows up DOA. BOOM! Bottom will drop out of the markets.
Anon,
looks like the 2nd TALF auction already fell on its face. Time for spin baby.
The white people crate short ETfs to short US market to death. There is no short ETF in China, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, they are up al 50% from the lows..
Mark, Why "Geithner plan & FASB changes" are not priced into the mkt? Any reason? I hold FAS, but it does not seem to moving at all??
Oa
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