Thursday, April 16, 2009

Bookkeeping: Covering Con-Way (CNW) to Close

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Starting to reach a point of absurdity - Krispy Kreme (KKD) is up 50%, Jones Soda (JSDA) up 40%, Crocs (CROX) is flying high.... traders are reaching for any such junk to push up. I am on the look out for Iomega to surge now (if you were not in the market a decade ago that would make no sense to you) ;) I would throw my normal line of "when it gets this frothy its time to head for the exit" but I said that last week, and all it got me was losses on short positions.


We are REALLY overdue for a correction here of some sort... but it just hasn't happened because it appears everyone is looking for one. Until every short has been decimated, it appears the market won't stop.

I have to cover the last 0.5% of Con-Way(CNW) short because the green shoot economy apparently is now pushing into the trucking sector. Even though Ryder (R) said last week it was not - but that was last week, and more green shoots appeared this week. Percentage loss was severe - mid teens, but not a lot of bucks since I covered most once the "double top" of $20.70s was broken. There was some hope on the short side yesterday when it fell below $20, but all it did was bounce off the 50 day moving average and is surging today. If I did not know what it did and only went off the chart, it would be quite a bullish condition.

Story of the tape right now - hard to find bad charts, as so many are breaking through resistance - retesting ... and then bouncing ever higher. Have to respect the chart until euphoria mood changes. Struggling to find anything to put on the short side of the ledger right now.

Still looking for S&P 870 but now it appears so is everyone else - so it would seem too convenient for the market to just stop on a dime there. I expect much trickery as we approach it.

Remember, Google (GOOG) reports after the bell, then "better than expected" Citigroup (C) and General Electric (GE) tomorrow. Should make for some crazy after and pre market action in the Casino of New York. BB&T (BBT) is a "good bank" that reports tomorrow which I'll be more interested in myself since it does more of the plain vanilla banking, but all eyes will be on CitiGovernment (C).

With this completely abject level of NON fear by bulls, I am expecting a 7-8% type of correction in a short duration (over 3-6 days) sometime soon... if only the Magic 8 Ball would tell me the exact date it begins. I'm starting to read the same fearlessness out of bulls that I read from bears 6 weeks ago. But apparently the last line of shorts must be destroyed first.

While I might appear to drinking huge quantities of Kool Aid, please be aware cash is still well in excess of 50%. But with what is in the market, I'm being more aggressive...

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