Thursday, March 12, 2009

WSJ: The Next Big Bailout Choice - Insurers

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Ah, bailout nation beckons for yet another group - insurers. Our pockets are endless.... the Wall Street Journal takes a look at the decision ahead by government on whether to bailout insurance companies. It appears they aren't under as strict rules as the banks to mark their assets properly so a ticking time bomb sits in the closet. If/when they are required to price things "accurately" - well that's where your tax dollars might be coming in. Interestingly, this was an area where Ken Heebner of CGM Funds fame was putting his money last quarter...

Anyhow, please break open your child's piggy bank - the government needs more of your money. This TARP fund appears to be endless - I thought it was $700 Billion but it seems company after company is going for the second $350 Billion - and somehow the fund never empties ;) Magic.

Since these are household names - Prudential, Hartford, Metlife - I cannot imagine the government not bailing them out because you can just imagine the panic that would ensue if average Americans started getting the feeling their insurance was not safe. But we'll see...
  • The tumbling financial markets are dragging down the life-insurance industry, an important cog in the U.S. economy, as mounting losses weaken the companies' capital and erode investor confidence.
  • A dozen life insurers have pending applications for aid from the government's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, and the industry is expecting an answer to its request for a bank-style bailout in the coming weeks. The government so far hasn't said whether insurers will be eligible for the program.
  • Life insurers have taken a beating in recent weeks. The Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. Life Insurance Index has fallen 59% since the beginning of the year, leaving it down 82% since its May 2007 all-time high.
  • Some of the hardest-hit companies are century-old names that insure the lives of millions of Americans. Shares of Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., which already received a capital injection from German insurer Allianz, are down 93% as of Wednesday's close from their 52-week high. MetLife Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc. are both suffering as the value of their vast investment portfolios declines.
  • Some life insurers are faring better than others, and some of the nation's giants retain triple-A ratings, including Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co., New York Life Insurance Co., Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co. and TIAA-CREF. (and we all know how accurate a triple A rating is, right?) But as the economy buckles, analysts say many insurers face losses that can eat away at the capital cushions regulators require them to maintain.
  • Long-time experts say the industry is going through its most tumultuous period in recent memory. "It's a pretty scary scenario right now," said Pete Larson, an analyst at Gradient Analytics, a Scottsdale, Ariz., research group.
  • Some state regulators have lately extended relief from certain capital requirements. But insurers haven't received the kind of injections banks got in recent months. That's partly because insurers didn't gobble up risky assets, and also because as long-term investors, they generally don't have to recognize on the bottom line short-term dips in values of their assets.
  • Ratings agencies and stock investors are growing concerned about how long the industry can avoid reckoning with the distressed assets on their books. Rating agencies Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and A.M. Best have cut the ratings of more than a dozen insurers in recent weeks.
  • Life insurers' woes have come largely from investment-grade corporate bonds, commercial real estate and mortgages, regulatory filings show. Many insurers ended 2008 with high levels of losses that, due to accounting rules, they haven't had to record on their bottom lines. (this is the key! They have losses that by accounting rules they have yet to fess up to) MetLife, the nation's biggest life insurer by assets with $380.84 billion in its general account, had $29.8 billion in unrealized losses at the end of 2008. Hartford Financial had $14.6 billion in unrealized losses at year's end. Prudential, the second-largest insurer by assets, had nearly $11.3 billion in unrealized losses, up $5.4 billion in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter.
  • The ramifications of a weakened life-insurance industry for the overall economy are significant. Life insurers are among the biggest holders of the nation's corporate debt. Together, they own about 18% of all corporate bonds outstanding, according to the American Council of Life Insurers, or ACLI, an industry trade group.
  • If life insurers stop buying bonds, the capital markets may not fully recover, say insurance industry representatives and analysts. Already, their buying activity has slumped. In the fourth quarter of 2008, life insurers agreed to buy $3.3 billion in stocks and bonds through private transactions, down 63% from the previous quarter, according to a survey by the ACLI. Insurers have been putting more cash into safe havens such as Treasury bonds.
  • Any sign of vulnerability among life insurers could further erode confidence and make jittery consumers reluctant to buy insurance products, analysts and financial advisers say. "I get as many emails from subscribers who worry about their policies as they do about their stock," said Morningstar analyst Alan Rambaldini, who covers life-insurance companies.
  • Ratings firms and Wall Street analysts say another problem for some life insurers is obligations for variable annuities, a retirement-income product that often guarantees minimum withdrawals or investment returns. As stock markets plunge to fresh lows, life insurers need to set aside additional funds to show regulators that they can meet their obligations, further crimping spare capital.
The news isn't all bad....
  • The industry has several things in its favor.
  • Life insurers will likely continue to generate cash from the premiums on their policies, some analysts and executives say.
  • And unlike investment banks and many other financial firms, life insurers don't need to routinely raise money in the capital markets to fund daily operations.
  • Few of the biggest ones have any sizable debt of their own maturing in 2009. Many insurers have built up big cash chests in recent months, by hoarding their incoming premiums.
What's next?
  • For now, the Treasury Department hasn't said whether life insurers will be eligible for TARP funds. Industry group ACLI expects Treasury to decide whether insurers will be eligible for federal aid some time later this month.
  • One stumbling block is that the industry is overseen by state regulators, not a single federal agency. That means there's no group of federal officials responsible for it or with a deep understanding of its challenges.

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