Monday, March 30, 2009

DryShips (DRYS) Gets Going Concern Note from Auditors; Manitowec (MTW) - Eww

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This is an ironic story because in the comments section last week, reader Keith P asked why I trade in Excel Maritime (EXM) rather than everyone's favorite dry bulk shipper - DryShips (DRYS). Today's news which has been a long time coming explains why. [Oct 31, 2008: Credit Tsunami Swamps Trade] [Nov 3, 2008: UK Telegraph - Investors Shun Greek Debt as Shipping Crisis Deepens] While DryShips is the daytraders / speculators favorite stock it is not for me, or my timeframe - not with the potential to wake up any morning and seeing banks pulling the plug. Back in January we posted how DryShips was breaching covenants and in talks with another bank about more covenants to be broken

DryShips Inc (DRYS) said two of its banks notified the Greek dry bulk carrier that it is in breach of certain financial covenants and it is currently in discussions with its lenders for waivers and amendments to loan covenants.

The company
added that it is in talks with another lender that currently holds $650 million of its debt regarding breach of loan covenants.


Speculators seem to ignore these things and as long as it is hot money they like to play... which makes it difficult to short because this type of stock moves 20% in any random direction based on which way the wind is blowing.

Now again, we are in an era where individual stocks mean very little and sectors trade together - the tarnish of one stock stinks up the entire sector. That is illogical on many fronts but it is what it is. Other stocks in dry bulk are being hammered today ... even those that have no covenant issues. Hence we were able to pick up some EXM this AM at nearly 20% off Friday prices.

Via Reuters
  • Greek dry bulk carrier DryShips Inc (DRYS) said it got a going concern notice from its auditors as the company reclassified $1.8 billion of long-term debt as current.
  • Last week, DryShips said it was in discussions with its some of its lenders concerning current breaches of loan covenants, and pending the outcome of such discussions it has reclassified about $1.8 billion in debt as short-term. In a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company said it may not be successful in obtaining covenant waivers or modifications or its lenders may accelerate its indebtedness.
  • "If our indebtedness is accelerated, it would be very difficult in the current financing environment for us to refinance our debt or obtain additional financing and we could lose our vessels if our lenders foreclose their liens," the company said in a regulatory filing.
  • However, DryShips said it will generate sufficient cash from operations and proceeds from new equity to satisfy its liquidity needs for the next 12 months.
Via TheStreet.com
  • "As discussed during our latest conference call, the going concern explanatory paragraph is the result of the previously announced reclassification of $1.8 billion of long-term debt as current," said DryShips CEO George Economou in a news release. "With the proactive approach already taken to reduce $2 billion in capital expenditures, the confidence of our three main lenders with whom we are in close ongoing discussions, secured revenues of over $2.4 billion in the next three years from drybulk time charters and offshore drilling contracts and the recent equity infusion of $380 million through the ATM Equity Offeringsm share issuance program, we have repositioned DryShips for the long-term and remain ahead of the curve."
  • In its filing with the SEC, DryShips outlined key reasons for the drybulk shipping market's deterioration in general and DryShips revenue specifically, citing: A lack of trade financing for purchases of commodities carried by sea, causing a sharp drop in cargo shipments. An excess of iron ore in China, leading to lower iron ore prices and increased stockpiles in Chinese ports.
The last point speaks to the hilarity of this market and its drive to create a thesis; after all - all things commodities and China are booming because of anecdotal reports of iron ore (and other metals) being shipped to China. Apparently to sit in ports ;) Thesis baby - thesis.
  • The company said that continued low charter rates in the drybulk market would harm its revenue, cash flows and ability to comply with covenants in its loan agreements. Should lenders not agree to waive or modify covenants, the filing continued, lenders could accelerate the payments of some debt, and the company could lose vessels.
As an aside, for an example of what happens when covenants are fully breached with no give from the banks - see Manitowec (MTW) (thanks to reader Thomas) Again, another stock that rocketed upward in the Kool Aid of the past 3 weeks, and would of inflicted much pain on the short side ... but that darn reality keeps interjecting itself onto the bulls landscape.
  • Manitowoc Co (MTW) said it was likely to violate some debt covenants in the second half of 2009 as the proceeds from sale of its ice business were lower than expected.
  • The diversified manufacturer, which currently meets all covenant requirements, also withdrew its outlook for 2009 expects lower earnings to further increase the risk of covenant violation.
On the latter point, only pundits can somehow see clearly 6 months into the future - they assure us once again brighter times are ahead. I continue to scratch my head at how they keep reaching for the Magic 8 Ball which has failed them for a year +... yet somehow they continue to believe they know better than company after company which has rescinded guidance due to lack of visibility. Pundits rule.



Long Excel Maritime in fund and personal account

10 comments:

Brisky Capital said...

Used to own some MTW as they were doing well with global crane demand high (this was a year or two ago). Last year they got into that bidding war with ITW over Enodis and won (or lost, depending on your viewpoint). It ended up being about the worst possible time for that purchase. Just another example of the problems with excess debt. Unfortunate.

UrbaneGorilla said...

TM.. Re DRYS. I read an interview about 2 months ago. The CEO of a Swiss Lending Institution that funds shippers said in effect that many shippers are in breach of their covenants.Their response in light of the current economy is to rewrite the covenants and require either a reduction of cancellation of the company's dividend. As he put it "We seriously do not want to foreclose and own a shipping company. That is not our business."

Hmmm!

TraderMark said...

Brisky, that is actually a situation a lot of companies are in. Lots of people piled into commercial real estate in 2007 or homes into 2006... all with layers of debt

This is the American way. Using savings to fund purchases? Pshaw! So chinese.

TraderMark said...

UG,
that is the case in MANY INDUSTRIES

Many homebuilders are in breach but keep getting rewrites of their loans. I suppose banks don't want all that inventory - they already have enough.

If banks were truly following the terms many more corporations would already be sunk, both private and public. I am in awe that a company like Beazer Homes for example lives! :) One of my predictions going into 2008 was a rash of major homebuilder BK filings - I was dead wrong. Because banks are kind and genteel folk.

RandomFundamentalist said...

The Enodis acquisition was one of the worst I have seen. When the credit crisis was becoming clear, this management team decided to leverage further into capital goods for the food and beverage industry? Really? It ranks up there with Quiksilver's acquisition of Rossignol, which essentially bankrupted what was a good company. I think ZQK bought Rossi for like $1B and recently sold for $100mm or something. Now all they have to show for it is a pile of debt. Awesome!!!

TraderMark said...

RF,
if you ever have some time I'd love to see the bonus situation for the MTW folks in 2008 ... remember everyone is paid nowadays for 'doing something, anything!" not actually paid after seeing how the transaction worked out in 2-4 years.

This is why bonuses and junk should be clawbacked - shareholders continue to be screwed under the "heads we win, tails we still win" compensation structure. No matter how stooopid a move - you win.

Brisky Capital said...

ITW can now have Enodis and Manitowoc for much less than they were going to pay for Enodis itself.

keithpiccirillo said...

On March 18th street insider released the same news for EXM on covenants as they shed 5%.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Special+Reports/After-Hours+Movers:+Oracle+(ORCL)+Higher%3B+PRGN,+CLC,+ARE,+EXM,+NKE+Lower/4498110.html

You sure know how to yo-yo this sector.
The CEO's credibility is slim and none, many are clinging on for the Ocean Rig deal spinoff (your article of May 23rd 2008) but clearly you are in agreement with SeekingAlpha contributor Mark Anthony.
Thanks for the mention you have great memory retention.

UrbaneGorilla said...

As an additional point, 'breach of covenant' doesn't necessarily mean the shipper is in default. A more common breach is that the value of the company has dropped below a point that is contracted.

TraderMark said...

Absolutely

Many companies are now in breach, and "negotiating furiously" :)

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