I just had an imaginary conversation with Faber and it went something like this
TraderMark: So I've been calling for social unrest to rise for well over a year as we enter the throes of a Global Great Recession and the have nots finally cannot take it anymore.
Marc F: Kids these days.
TraderMark: So what's your outlook sir?
Marc F: Do you want the good news or bad news?
TraderMark: I'm fatigued from bad news - I've been one of the few who have been blogging about all these bad things coming since I made my home on the internets in 2007... all the while Kool Aid was thrown at me from every direction. Until finally the Kool Aid people went back into the jungle in September 2008. So let's hear the good news.
Marc F: I'm bullish for a trade for the next month or so.
TraderMark: Excellent! (*presses virtual Boo Yaaaah button*) So what's the bad news???
Marc F: Then war.
TraderMark: (gulp)
Allright, I'll still call outright war anytime soon a Black Swan event. I myself am not counting on war until 15-25 years out when China and the US are striving for the same natural resources. But I'm an eternal optimist ;) Now you see why they hide Marc Faber on CNBC Asia or CNBC Europe... it would not fit in the "happy happy" theme of CNBC Denial. I mean CNBC USA.
I'm more in the Jim Rogers camp who is simply calling for civil unrest to spread (hat tip to Todd Sullivan) no matter how much useless currency Uncle Ben prints.
On the bright side, Uncle Ben is going to inflate us so we at least feel rich... until we realize bread costs $8 a loaf. Then the riots ;)
************
One more Faber clip here - thanks to reader Thomas (don't watch the last 30 seconds around razors) (woot)
15 comments:
Mark,
Any thoughts on UYM? I'm thinking now is a great time to get in.
-mikemasland
p.s. your comments posting tool kinda sucks :)
roubini and his jet setting, vulva encrusted walls jumped the shark months ago.
i wanna party with faber.
his laugh kills me...its kinda like "you people are idiots...i have been telling you what is gonna happen if you persist with this ponzi scheme you call an economy, and now its happening".
Even when Marc Faber smiles/laughs it looks like a grimace.
Rogers is a big picture kind of guy - he hasn't deviated form his China, commodities, dollar-is-doomed themes in a decade or so. But he calls himself the world's worst trader.
Faber seems to be a much better trader. It's uncanny how accurate his asst allocation calls have been in the last eight year, and on a wide variety of asset classes, time scales, and at different phases of the business cycle. He is basically the only guy in the Barron's roundtable you can listen to (and it's funny how he mocks Bill Gross in that forum for being in bed with the govt - as TM did here).
I like listening to Rogers and Faber because they both seem lke guys who clearly won the game a long time ago and now are just enjoying themselves. SO they aren't just talking their books (like Gross and 99% of other talking heads out there) and can step back and laugh at how absurd the game has become, while pointing out how to profit from the absurdity. I think I get more fro Faber than from Rogers though - Faver seems to come up with creative, new tradable ideas, while Rogers's playbooks is always goign to be China, commodiities, and non-dollar denominated assets.
NP is right - Faber woudl be hilarious to party with. He did an interview recently in Hong Kong (I think it is in the 3/16 Bloomberg archives), where at the end (after advising people to buy a farm and move out of cities so they don't die in a war), he told the interviewer that he doesn't grow hasish on his farm in New Zealand, but if the interviewer wanted to visit his farm in the jungle of northern Thailand they could enjoy some of "the good stuff" grown locally (said with that Swiss accent and a demonic little grin). very funny.
Mike, of all the sugar high 2x, 3x funds probably UYM or ERX are the two to best take advantage of the "theme" but I still think the world is so bad off we still have deflationary aspects first. Its a tug of war between global contraction (bearish) v currency debasement (bullish) for these things. I assume day by day, week by week, the tug of war will flip from one side to the other. UYM is more of a chemical/industrial companies
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/holdings.asp?ETF=true&Symbol=UYM
ERX is 3x oil companies
nam, I'd get a kick of that video if you can find it on Faber.
The good stuff from Bloomberg. I guess it's that one
http://vodpod.com/watch/1435040-marc-faber-in-thailand-we-grow-good-stuff
I remember Marc doing a TV interview about 10 years ago in HK where he ended up in discos, cabarets and finally in a striptease club with the camera team following. A security guy started shouting "No camera ! Camera off !" and that was the end of it :)
Faber is a colorful personality full of interesting ideas. I don't always agree with him, but he always has interesting insights and is not afraid to speak his mind.
These two guys are the same person in my mind. But I love em both.
Everyone got their 5 flags picked out? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpetual_traveler#Five_Flag_Theory)
Here's an excellent 49-minute interview of Faber:
http://video.ihned.cz/c3-35695930-0V0000_d-video-cely-rozhovor-s-investorem-markem-faberem
Tom Bodnar
Tom, very interesting and long video. Thanks for sharing !
Thanks for the links (vids), will check the Faber stuff out this weekend
Colin I had never heard of 5 flags but thanks for educating me - I can begin preparing now ;)
"My advice to you is to buy a farm and a shotgun.'
Yowza! That's the way to get the weekend started right!
You won't regret it.
Check out minute 20:20 "enough with the photographs":)
Also check out 21:00+ with some nice swear words for Bernanke and Co. and having a smoke
http://video.ihned.cz/c3-35695930-0V0000_d-video-cely-rozhovor-s-investorem-markem-faberem
Marc Faber unplugged :)
Great stuff Mark. Here is my latest in-depth look at the financial collapse and where I think we're heading. It is grim.
"In today’s spin doctored media maelstrom can China be more truthful than the United States? The following will uncover some of reasons why CBS, Bernanke, the Fed, and other members of the power Elite are lying to you. We will then explore the mechanics of how a total Fed collapse can happen. And we’ll end with a review of how a stronger police state is being formed."
Our Engineered Meltdown: End of the Beginning
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/2009/03/end-of-the-beginning.html
WHY move to Singapore? Especially if one believes agriculture is the wave of the future?
Does Singapore have VAST arable land? One can always print more currency...but NOT real estate to grow food on! I would think the USA is the one place where one would like to be in a world short of food...but, what do I know?....oh, and weapons to defend ourselves with. Can one own a gun in Singapore? How is the farming there? The US has land, energy, production skills, manufacturing skills, and especially INNOVATION for toys the world wants! Does Singapore innovate? China? India? They all produce LOTS of engineers...and NOW what do they DO...EXACTLY? WHAT have they INVENTED which is USEFUL? Anybody outside the US, besides Europe? WHERE? Tell me. I wanna know. Instruct me. WHERE are their patents?
I'm short Rogers hairline.
Post a Comment