Bookkeeping: Transactions

Doing a lot of stuff this AM so I'll just give quick overview

1. Almost Family (AFAM) acting like death in a good tape and good report so cut back by 1/3rd - wow, this one is awful. Thanks Obama!
   
2. Took profits on yesterday's short of Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) - still hold a minor position - this big gain offsets the AFAM carnage.
   
3. Took profit on Excel Maritime (EXM)
4. Took profits on James River Coal (JRCC)
5. Took profits on Baidu.com (BIDU)
6. Cut back Morgan Stanely (MS) on pop (no profits, reducing exposure for now - took small loss)
7. Took profits on Mosaic (MOS)

EXM, JRCC, MOS, BIDU are all plays on China/commodities

Not sure why exactly S&P level 712 is resistance but that seems to be the area where we get turned back the past two days. If we get back north of that level I'll get more long exposure - until proven otherwise have to assume every rally fails.

Some huge pops in everything China related and commodity related on a "better than expected" Purchasing Managers report out of the country this morning. Trigger happy market looking for any glimmer of hope.

• A Chinese manufacturing index climbed for a third month, adding to evidence that a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is pushing the world’s third-biggest economy closer to a recovery.
• The Purchasing Manager’s Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 49 in February from 45.3 in January, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed statement. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
• A glut of steel at ports in China, the world’s biggest maker of the alloy, shows mills were too quick to boost output on expectations the stimulus package unveiled in November would spur demand, according to Bank of Nova Scotia.
• “The government’s stimulus investment has finally started to take effect,” said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. “However, a recovery may be short-lived as export demand may get worse in the second half and the outlook for consumption is uncertain.”

I've talked about this report - first its from China; you can't believe any report. (same with US to be frank) Second this report is very young in the tooth - no real history. Third, if you want to see what is really going on in China, go look to Australia. If one really believes the entire world contracting is going to be offset by China government, I have a bridge to sell you in Shanghai. But that doesn't mean we cannot trade on "thesis".

• Australia's gross domestic product fell 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today. That was sharply lower than analyst expectations for a 0.1 percent quarterly expansion following the 0.1 percent gain in the third quarter.

When Australia starts growing, I'll believe this thesis more.

On the plus side we see where traders run into during any turn in the market ....

Long all names mentioned in fund; long Almost Family in personal account