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Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Bookkeeping: Cutting Back AeroVironment (AVAV)

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I just found out yesterday that AeroVironment (AVAV) has one of the highest short positions of all stocks... wonderful. This was one of the safe haven stocks we were hiding in until people started whispering that Obama will cut from defense spending to fund all the other spending. And the safe haven was imploded over the last week.

Shorty got squeezed today as the stock is up 12%, so I am going to take this position down from a 1.5% stake to 0.8% ....roughly at $34.30. I'd like to see the stock back north of $36 to resume confidence in the position from a technical perspective. But the chart setup yesterday was a complete horror show so considering the bad vibes it was sending out 24 hours ago, I am thankful for a somewhat graceful partial exit. For now, I'll take advantage of freshly squeezed O.J. and reduce the position until I see which way this stock moves from here. Could go either way... it's no man's land for now - $35.50 is the line in the sand to the north. But with an army of shorts targeting the name from the south... have to be careful.

Long AeroVironment in fund; no personal position


2 comments:

Stonefoxcapital said...

The fear over Obama's budget reminds me of the joy over his infrastructure stimulus plan. It just won't get approved in the same format and we're already seeing alot of backlash even from Dems on big govt spending. The poll CNBC reported on last night only showed 51% of people favoring more govt spending and thats before any of his programs have even been debatted.

TraderMark said...

You are very correct

we were mocking the infra moves but some of those stocks went up 100%

we are an ADD society and if there is a thesis to be played big money tries to create a situation it can make quick profits. And then dump on suckers

This is sort of vice versa

If indeed MORE people get insured there is a lot more money to be made on volume, even if at lower margins (healthcare)

as for defense there is no proof anywhere obama will cut defense - esp a company like AVAV which has drones that will thrive in Afghanistan.

But you can't argue with a mob

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