I'm crying uncle and covering my Whirpool (WHR) short - I have only had this for a day and a half and I got my teeth kicked in with a low teens % loss... I cut the position down in parcels (I started with about a 2.3% stake) as it started to work against me, so I don't know the exact figure % loss but it was ugly - somewhere between 9 and 12%. Last piece out here near $33.50s. Only savior was small position size since I thought S&P could run to 870. I just didn't expect it to go straight there in 1 massive bull run.
Right now fighting the "retail/American consumer is back" trade is a losing battle - our stores are bustling with folks without jobs but that's ok - they have their house ATM back (even if their house is underwater). I can't fight a horde of raging bulls who insist I am wrong. So I'm wrong (for now)
Unfunded pension obligations? Debt load? Forgettaboutit.
We'll revisit in the future - the Kool Aid has overpowered my last 2 consumer related shorts.
No position
3 comments:
I don't know how long this rally lasts, but I'm not getting very short until it does. Sadly, that means I didn't follow on the REITs, but I'd rather protect my gains here. If I had to guess, the rally will survive the bad earnings season, but fail there after on uncertainty.
Sitting on a lot of cash...
Edit: supposed to say "until it does fail"
This is first rally after a few painful weeks back in Late-Feb till Mid-March, so the market (ahem, i mean the govt) is trying especially hard to keep this one going so folks can really believe that was the bottom.
I'm thinking this rally would probably last as long as that feb-march crash did. I remember really thinking the market was oversold by the end of that one, to bad I didn't act on those thoughts...
But honestly I can't see this euphoria keeping up w/o a pullback to S&P 790 next week...if it pulls back and recover, then we'll see growth as those on the sidelines start coming in - and then once those suckers come in, bam! reality will hit.
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