The house ATM is back, and the printing presses are throwing money at everyone. No job? No problem? And that's not just a late night commercial anymore. Money is overflowing in Joyville, USA. I've been short Harley since Monday ($13.20s) and again I've been keeping position sizes small on the short side thinking S&P 870 could happen (this was a 1.2% stake when I started it) but that doesn't mean the exhaust fume burns feel any better. I am exiting north of $15 for a cool hand Luke 13%+ loss.
It seems like the only thing a human is allowed to short anymore is commerical real estate. I know this might seem amusing if you are a bull but trust me, we played this song and dance at least four times in 2008 when the "consumer is back" trade was on (remember when the consumer was back due to the spring 2008 housing bottom [thesis]? or the consumer is back because gas is dropping from $4 to $2.50 [thesis]? or the consumer was back when... well you get the picture) It doesn't matter if its true as long as enough desperate mutual fund managers who are trailing the indexes by 10% for the quarter need to make their March 31 filing looking like they caught the rally.I will make this up these egregious % losses in consumer related stocks by buying solar stocks that are up 50% today as many speculators did between 3:45 PM and 4:00 PM (ok not really but just you watch solar stocks gap up 30% tomorrow morning), because in the Ponzi scheme called the stock market, all you need is to find a greater fool. And also because solar panels were on the shopping list mentioned in paragraph one. Also don't forget the $5 organic peaches at Whole Foods (WFMI) or $140 sweaters at Saks (SKS) - the consumer is back! Even if a week from Friday we'll see how many more of them have no jobs. Jobs are immaterial to the American economy as IBM clearly showed yesterday by shipping another 5000 of them to India. As long as we have more printed money handed to us, we can sit at home. And shop.
No longer short Harley Davidson in fund or personal account
Photo of me in the last hour of the trading day below... I'm the one in the white shirt.
14 comments:
this is the US man. you sound too angry for the rest of us.
maybe someone at ibm can send you to India.
oh, by the way, about those solar stocks, this AM i captured a 4% profit in YGE. had i a crystal ball i would have held 'til close and made 40%( ten times more) maybe i should hate everyone at whole foods too!
uhh, I don't really think it is classified at anger. Try dry wit.
NYC unemployment rate increases from 6.9% to 8.1% in just one month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=alKvNr6xSGbg
More shoppers with free time?
I've said elsewhere that is next Friday's unemployment report can jump from 8.1% to 20% than the market might rally 50% since "it can't get worse". Plus it frees up more shoppers as you say.
Sincerely,
Angry White Male
A name that has burned me a touch on the rally to add to the shorting list - WTW. Decent cashflows (that I think will fade) and huge amount of debt for a company that doesn't have any fixed assets...
Still short. Still getting roasted. Still not drinking the Kool Aid.
WTW looks to have a date with the 50 day moving average just over $21. Until then you should be ok, if it breaks north like WFMI and HOG just did, run for cover. Come join the dark side! Wait, I mean the light side... or is it the dark side.
keep getting them mixed up ;)
Too bad about the snarky bitter turn that your writing has taken. I stumbled on your blog a couple of months ago and thought you had an intriguing idea. I still do but I've checked back on your blog less and less. Hope you figure out how to get back to being constructive, insightful and maybe even profitable without dismissing the general populace as a bunch of idiots. Good luck to you.
I'm hardly one to throw stones, but my advice would be to not short anything when the market is strong.
Don't change a thing Mark.
The world needs more satire, irony and self deprecating humour.
It's a wonderfully harmless survival mechanism.
Mark- Yardeni was on Fast Money today and pronounced that the bottom is in and that one should not be defensive with their portfolio. He says that the fed's injection os capital and buying treasuries to lower mortgage rates is working!! Hooray the bottom is in and the Nasdaq has regained its 200 DMA.
Your thoughts?
Mark, you know what's funny though....as a college student...the internship market seems hot. Many friends I know are landing internships like mad especially in financials services. Maybe the firms are looking for cheaper labor.
LOL at more shoppers though.
in NY that is
interesting ! interns in demand for cheap labor. Another sign of how grossly overpaid these people were. Especially financial services which actually don't produce anything of consumption value
What was Yardeni saying in Oct 2007? Jan 08? Jun 08 etc. I don't know... but I'd ask that of anyone you are following.
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