For now I am just selling JRCC and getting my portfolio tighter (less positions), and ready to move in either direction. For the long side I want names the market has been favoring and all things being relative the market has deemed copper (an "early cycle recovery" metal) to be the commodity of choice along with some of the agriculture names (which we have covered) so I am going to move in that direction. That said, the news flow out of fertilizer has been quite poor of late [Mar 4: Potash, Mosaic, Intrepid Potash Come Under Pressure After Talk of Uralkai 25% Price Cut] but people seem to be bidding these stocks up anyhow. Doesn't make much sense to me. Copper is the metal many of us call the best economist in the world - in fact I wrote a post a year and half ago on how copper might be signaling we are in trouble (keep in mind the stock market was at all time highs in October 2007) [Nov 23, 2007: Is Copper Signaling a Slowing Global Economy?] Now to front run the "coming global recovery" hedgies are throwing themselves back into the proxy for copper (FCX). Thesis baby... thesis. As always, don't listen to what companies themselves are saying (what do they do? I mean they only live and breathe their industries); if you are a trader - just create your own thesis and find some nonsense reason to create a trade. To wit, today from Rio Tinto (RTP) Rio Tinto said in its annual report that metal prices are unlikely to stage much of a rebound in 2009.
There is a gap on Freeport down at $29 which would be a nice place to begin a long position. I'm debating whether to short FCX here ....
No positions
