For now, we're going to be replacing a nation of nail technicians, realtors, and mortgage backed security used car salesmen.... err consultants with old school professions - like sewer fixers, steamroller operators and... shoe cobblers! I love it.
I said a long while back that Americans will return to a nation of savers - not out of choice, but necessity. The signs are emerging everywhere.
- American consumers and businesses are embarking on an era of thrift as the recession deepens, saving more money as they cut spending on purchases as varied as sweaters, new homes and office towers. The personal saving rate in the last three months of 2008 rose to its highest level in six years.
- "I haven't seen shoes like this in 25 years," marvels Jim McFarland. The narrow hall of his small shoe-repair shop is piled high with reheeled stilettos, resoled boots and polished oxfords. Mr. McFarland, a third-generation cobbler, is riding a shoe-repair boom. Since mid-November, he has been juggling roughly 275 repair jobs a week -- about 50% more than usual. "I'm so busy right now it's unbelievable," he says. Mr. McFarland says he now sees new customers arriving regularly, including young folks who have never visited a cobbler.
- Nationwide, cobblers and their suppliers report markedly higher revenues than a year ago, as newly frugal Americans opt to repair their shoes rather than replace them. "Our business is very, very strong in an industry that has been depressed and declining for many years," says Lee Efronson, owner of Miami Leather Co., a wholesaler of shoe-care products to cobblers since 1959.
- It appears that the good news for cobblers means bad news for shoe retailers. Retail sales of adult footwear declined 3.2% in the 12 months that ended in November, from the year-earlier period, according to NPD Group Inc., a market-research firm.
- Lawrence Sutton hadn't set foot in a shoe-repair shop in years. In November, the 36-year-old insurance-company owner walked into Mr. McFarland's storefront in a strip mall in this town east of Tampa to drop off his wife's black Prada pumps, which had a broken strap and worn heels. "It's better to pay $40 to fix them than $500 for a new pair," he explained. His job is secure, he said, but he's concerned about the economy and is watching his wallet.
- There are just 7,000 shoe-repair shops left in the U.S., down from more than 120,000 during the Great Depression, according to the Shoe Service Institute of America, a trade group. Today's cobblers lament that young people are less inclined to learn the trade from their fathers or take it up on their own.
- One reason the ranks of cobblers have thinned is that it can take up to four years to learn the trade. Another barrier to entry is pricey equipment. Finishing machines, for example, come with trimmers, sanding belts, and buffers, and can cost more than $20,000.
- "They come in here with their tails between their legs," says Mr. Lipson. A distraught first-time customer, he says, recently dropped off a pair of black leather Manolo Blahniks that her dog had mauled. Mr. Lipson says he made them look like new. "She hugged me," he says.
- Inexpensive shoes sold by discount stores have also been a bane to the craft, Mr. Lipson says. Shoppers get into the habit of tossing them after six months and buying new ones.
- Last week, Jessica Maugeri, 24, paid her first visit to a cobbler -- Mr. Johnson. She needed a fastener for a $60 pair of chocolate-brown Steve Madden wedges. She says she never paid attention to his small shop during past trips to the mall. But she is tightening her purse strings, she says, so she decided to give shoe repair a try. "I'm glad there are places like this," she says.







2 comments:
I can't re-find the references, but I've seen some information that makes me question the officially reported personal savings rate. I agree 100% the anecdotal evidence is on the ground, but be wary of the metric. Because the calculation doesn't take capital gains or investment into account. So for instance if individuals reduce their 401(k) contribution to make the increased payments on their ARM, that counts as savings under the metric.
Caveat censor.
Peter I agree on the statistics but lets say the statistics have been skewed all along. As long as its permanently skewed you can do apples to apples comparisons. When the skewing happens mid stream (i.e. like they have been changing the unemployment criteria since early 90s) then you cannot do apples versus oranges.
Put another way the BEA just reported 3.2% savings (going off top of my head) in Q4 2008. Maybe its really 4.0% maybe 2.0%. But its 3% higher than it was a year ago. Whatever the absolute number is.
As for stock gains and investments, I'd ask for the great majority in America the past decade. What stock gains ?
But your point is taken. I am not that interested in the absolute number, just the degree and magnitude of change. It is stark of late. I expect it to increase sharply in 2009-2010. When the government says it is 7%, maybe that means truly 9% or 5% or 11%.. not sure. But the trend is the thing.
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