The takeaway is this; even at 90% detection the test is far superior in accuracy than the current standard; and cheaper. But instead of "near perfection" the test now is closer to "incredibly accurate". As long as the next bevy of test results don't come in at a 70% detection rate everything should be on track; that would seem impossible since they are now nearing 1000 person sampling size on the first two batches but of course anything is possible. Why there was this "mix up" I don't know but if the results announced yesterday morning were the initial results I think people would of been pleased. The problem was they announced near perfection and then revised it down.
Since I get a lot of questions on this name I will remind it is "speculative" from the sense it is still in "prove me" stage... I consider this a high risk/high reward "home run" potential stock. The market opportunity from this 1 test alone is huge, and there are others in the pipeline. If you don't like volatility or are looking for a home run in two weeks this is not a stock for you. The real growth story (if everything plays out) shall be from late 2009 to 2011. "Valuation" today is arbitrary - it will be based on perception/mood/sentiment. That could be $5 or $25 or $50 since this is a not a traditional "P/E" multiple type of situation.
I bought a tad more here at $18 but am hoping to see $17 to add the next layer down. Since I want to have a large long term position in this name I will be adding, instead of cutting, as it falls and treating it differently than other positions where I cut the chord when the chart breaks down.
- Shares of Sequenom Inc. fell Tuesday after the company revised data on its SEQureDx Down syndrome test, saying it was not as effective at identifying the condition as previously reported.
- In a group of 459 pregnancies, Sequenom said it correctly diagnosed 96.6 percent of the cases of Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, and correctly identified 100 percent of the negative results. Sequenom initially said 100 percent of the positive results and 99.9 percent of negative results were correct.
- Lazard Capital Markets analyst Sean Lavin said the errors were apparent last week. He said he is still confident in the market for the test, which analysts say could become favored over amniocentesis because it appears to be more accurate, as well as less invasive and expensive. "We are pleased to see the company correct these numbers, but still feel the errors should have been caught before last week's presentation," Lavin said in a note to clients. "They do not change the data at all and will make no difference in adoption, but hurt credibility, as shown by the share price." (I agree with this assessment)
- The Positive Predictive Value is 96.6% (82.8% -99.8%) and the Negative Predictive Value of 100.0% (99.5% - 100%) at a 95% confidence interval
2 comments:
SQNM is now simply in free fall, would you ever consider cutting your losses or would you hold on?
If I had a full position on I'd cut back, but since I want to build this to a 5%+ position I am going to add as it falls. Depends where you stand on it. So I am sort of rooting for it to keep falling ...
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