Here are some of the names I am considering...
Signet Jewelers (SIG) which we've been discussing for a while here - another consumer play; the main issue for my purposes is lack of volume - only 200K a day which makes it hard for me to get in and out of. But it's now bounced to resistance. If this one worked out it could fall to that gap at $6.25
Almost Family (AFAM) this was a "general" in late 2008 that has simply been taken apart the past month... bouncing into resistance
Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) - basically a debt collection company that is trying to collect debts from cash starved Americans. The chart has been a death spiral - every day I've been waiting for some bounce and it has not come. Finally reversed today on ok earnings. It bounced right into resistence this morning and fell back. We'll see how it acts Monday.
Also as a fundamental sector short are transportation stocks - here is a trucker
Last, after the disaster that was Royal Caribbean (RCL) [Jan 28: Royal Caribbean to $1?] - a reader pointed out competitor Carnival (CCL) which is now reversing down and enticing...
If you have any similar ideas feel free to leave a comment and I'll take a look over this weekend. I'm a bit naked on the short side going into next week so my only hope appears to be Kool Aid and mustard seeds...
No positions
14 comments:
Almost Family is one of the holdings Heebs had in the last quarter of his Capital Growth Management LP, just released today.
For your info.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/868491/000095015609000031/0000950156-09-000031.txt
Crummy day today. Sold SRS yesterday and made good money, never thought there would be another $6 upswing. DRYS just did nothing a 1 day Cramer contrarian pick. So it goes.
Keith
Heebs is on a bit of a losing streak. Banks... I mean banks in Q4? Now insurance?
Man ;)
Hopefully this is a detour and we are not seeing Bill Miller 2.0.
Actually there is very little place to hide, I am just blown away he is not using his power to short more. Now if he had been SHORTING banks entering Q4... he'd of been happy.
the dry bulk shippers are just lottery tickets.
I agree that it's hard to pile into a short right now. The market could be bottoming, or could be ready to bounce. And anything that is either heavily shorted, or down too much already could bite you.
Having said that, this bit of news just popped up and could be a good short... It;s daily chart looks to continue down as well:
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Whirlpool is in compliance with its debt covenants, but has initiated talks with banks about amending their covenants in anticipation of an even more difficult market ahead. Many companies across the spectrum are struggling to fund their employee pension funds, Whirlpool as well.
Analysts, however, questioned whether it was reasonable to continue paying a dividend in light of a significant and growing pension deficit.
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Covenant amendments and dividend cuts.. A brutal combo... jegan
Hey Mark, when do you plan on pulling the trigger on gold? Are you waiting for some sort of chart setup?
Side note: Gold is currently trading at new highs in practically every currency (except dollars).
Mark,
I remember you tried shorting GS a week or so ago and got stopped out. I hear many talking about it being a screaming short near 100. But the thing I noticed that is so weird is that it LOST $4.00/share last Q...how is it near $100 stock.
I bring this up because I was looking to short GS at $80 in december and passed, and then I saw you short it and I was thinking that it could go down hard.
I mean losing $4.00/share in a Q is reminiscent of a single digit stock.
Just quite interesting.
Maybe Obama was carrying his apparatus in a Goldman Sachs bag ;)
lol
Bill
Anon
Almost bought RGLD today
I like Silver more perhaps but it hit resistance the past 2 days and retreated
Bill,
read the Gasparino story on CNBC.com about how GS held emergency meeting after Geithner
they run the US ;) hard to short them for long
GS and MS will be big winners from all this eventually
Heebner's struggles show you just how difficult of a market this is. He was chasing performance and it didn't work. I'm sure there is a lot of pressure on a fund manager to "stay invested" even when there aren't many good investments out there.
BTW: don't remind me of COF, I had a short position on it at $30 in december and was angry that it held up while the market sold off so I covered around 28 in early Jan..right before the dems passed restrictions which initially started the freefall..too bad...now it's $12...I guess it could have been worse, I could have purchased meena polar
:(
GS seems like the only shortable financial left..the rest are so low on a nominal basis. Maybe MS is decent too.
Bill
Ideas? Trending 1-2-3 is a good site to find the weekly changes in stock sector performance.
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/sectorperformance.pl
Check out all of the REIT sections for short stock ideas. Factor in Wednesday's mortgage plan release into your equation.
Newspapers are at the bottom and would be tantamount to jumping off a pancake.
Sporting activities (Nascar crowd) and farm machinery like CAT and others also had a rough week.
I was surprised about your LEN pick, but no accounting for why sectors get dragged up and down.
Another thought on the chart is to think contrarian and look for a stock in a sector that has just had a high + weekly change and see if it's justified.
I'm sure you'll let us know.
Thanks for the link to Trending 123... Added it to my links.... You might also like Clearstation for similar info, including RSI and 1 and 5 day, and 13 week change.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/Itechnicals?Sector=0
I also like to keep an eye on the McClellan Breadth indicator bu sector/industry as well at:
http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/rank_breadth_advance_decline_d.php?sort=Msummation
jegan
A brief article at 24//7 WallStreet on shorting activity last quarter. XOM too risky here?
http://247wallst.com/2009/01/12/short-sellers-a/
Thanks Jegan. Will do.
Any thoughts on the hotel operators? MAR, HOT, and GET are the ones I'm looking at. Also, I'm looking to possibly get short PALM.
OK here's an idea.
Spain, think (STD) I had this crummy stock about a year ago and just didn't think to short it after selling it off.
This is what Michael Lewis author of "Liar's Poker" said he is shorting now.
Somebody came up spades trumping TRMP over the past 2 years, it's now .23 cents.
No wonder he wants to buy it from the bondholders.
Robert,
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/01/wall-street-journal-as-hotel-vacancies.html
Michael,
Heebner could of shorted a lot of stocks; he was far too rosy on the economy for almost all of 2008; the first real bearishness I saw of him was fall. Most mutual funds cannot short - he has the advantage yet was among the worst performers in 2008 even with the ability to hedge.
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