An inspired web citizen has started http://deadmalls.com/
With this handy feature you can see the dead mall watch list in your own state.... lovely. http://deadmalls.com/features.html
New York Times: Our Love Affair with Malls is On the Rocks
- .... convenient starting point for rethinking the 50-year marriage between the American shopper and the American mall.
- Here, ladies and gentlemen, is the crux of the problem: We are reliably informed that whatever part of the economic crisis can’t be pinned on Wall Street — or on mortgage-related financial insanity — can be pinned on consumers who overspent. But personal consumption amounts to some 70 percent of the American economy. So if we don’t spend, we don’t recover. Fiscal health isn’t possible until money is again sloshing into cash registers, including those at this mall and every other retailer.
- In other words, shopping was part of the problem and now it’s part of the cure. And once we’re cured, economists report, we really need to learn how to save, which suggests that we will need to quit shopping again. So the mall we married has become the toxic spouse we can’t quit, though we really must quit, but just not any time soon.
- “I feel a need to get out there and do the mall thing, because I don’t want the mall to disappear,” says Cookie Tomlinson, who is visiting from Maryland and sits on a bench next to her son near Lego Park. (how... generous) “It’s a social experience, being with the grandkids, watching them interact,” she says. (hmm... wonder how grandparents interacted pre-mall...hmm.... certainly there must of been no interaction)
- THERE are roughly 1,500 malls in the United States, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, many of them ailing, some of them being converted into office buildings, and others closing their doors for good. (yes, because we need more empty office buildings... )
- IF we were actually in couples therapy with the mall, we’d have to confess to something: We have changed, not the mall. The economic crisis has caused shoppers to go into an essentials-only mode. But the mall has never trafficked in essentials.
- “You’d be amazed at how many people are returning things now,” Mr. Classen adds. “I’m going to have to start enforcing my return policy because — well, look at this.”
Only 5 more months until the "2nd half 2009" recovery commences.
[Jan 23: Forbes.com - Where You Won't Shop in 2009]
[Jan 12: Wall Street Journal - Wake of Bankruptcy Filings Expected from Retailers in Wake of Holidays]
[Dec 29, 2008: What Happens if America Returns to a Historical Savings Rate?]
[Dec 18, 2008: CNNMoney: The Dead Mall Problem]
[Nov 27, 2008: AP - Malls, Hotels Next Victims in New Mortgage Crisis]
[Oct 18, 2008: CNNMoney: Mall's Demise Could Doom Communities]
[Sep 20, 2008: US News & World Report - The End of the Shopaholic Nation?]
[Jul 21, 2008: Add Mervyn's to our Growing Litany of Retailers Headed to the Great Sunset]
[Jul 5, 2008: Bloomberg: Teenagers Skip $50 Jeans in Squeeze of Gas, Job Shortage])
[Apr 11, 2008: This Day in Bankruptcies - Another Airline and our First Major Retailer]








9 comments:
REITs had a very rough day today.
There's your short for you... SPG. They actually made a move up today though... I'd also suggest GGP, but it too moved up 33%.. All the way to 89 cents.. A better short might actually be one of the REITS relating to N.Y. as they survived the downturn pretty well, but if you heard the Mayors speech last week, office jobs in N.Y. are expected to drop considerably this year. Suspect SPG would be a good short. I'd be tempted to wait till they run up again first though... "Hope springs eternal!" jegan
been lookin at SPG on the short side for this thesis... tryin to find more names to go individually short on in that space, rather than just the IYR. GGP turned out well, and I've been hesistant on SPG bc their balance sheet is in better shape than most.
MF,
on my IYR short piece I listed about 6
MAC, KIM, off top of my head. I was going to do MAC short instead of IYR but I read some analyst thought highly of them a week earlier.
Note to self - ignore analysts.
I am just not 'as familiar' with this group on an individual basis - normally I'd ignore analysts. Bugger has been in free fall since.
search the blog for MAC or KIM and you should find the entry, I listed quite a few. But I took the easy way out (less profit) with IYR. I'll probably add an individual name somewhere along the line on next rebound.
jegan, SLG is office in NYCs... they actually had a good report BUT bad reaction to said report
what is funny now is these REITs are now beginning to pay people their dividend in stock. Thats great if the stock is stable - not much when they are crumbling.
By end of 2009 many of these will be down another 50%.
Barrons was out with an interview bullish on REITs this weekend by the way.
jegan, cannot short below $5 - remember that. You had a good one a few weeks ago on one of my GGP pieces... symbol started with a D... don't recall off my head
Like shooting fish in a barrel. On next hope rally they will all go up 30% and we can begin anew.
quote from SPG CEO (via CR this weekend):
“The new development business is dead for a decade,” Simon said on today’s call. “Maybe it’s eight years. Maybe it’s not completely dead. Maybe I’m over-dramatizing it for effect.”
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