Monday, February 23, 2009

Generals in Healthcare and Technology Starting to Take Bullets

The NASDAQ is finally under performing the S&Ps - as I wrote last night in the weekly summary this was one of the flies in my ointment of a trading low.

There have been places to hide out that have not been hit; that makes me worried. I always like to see all "generals" beaten during a selloff. But it depends on the nature of this selloff - is it more like November 2007 where some places were unaffected or more like January 2008 where the leaders (at the times commodities) were unaffected as the market tanked for a few weeks; so just as you gloated about how you escaped, the "generals" were sandblasted in the 3rd week of the selloff. The persistent strength in tech stocks and a few others like Visa (V)/Mastercard (M) complex still has me a bit wary.

Still no panic ....

Still no true panic aka "I feel like throwing up" moments for the longs - this has been a very bad two weeks but "orderly" in the selling.

If over the next 1-4 sessions we continue to see people who thought they were safe in technology and healthcare throw up their hands, that's how we get a very nice panic low.

For now, as I said Friday I'm not in a rush to do much [Staying on the Defensive] We *will* have an explosive bear market counter trend rally coming but too many people are gaming it for my tastes. In my perfect scenario the November 2008 lows break (S&P 741) - the "leadership" stocks such as technology and healthcare get pummeled as they are today for at least 2-3 more sessions, people throw up their hand in disgust and selling gets sloppy (as opposed to what has been very orderly)

These would be conditions that make me bullish for a nice tradeable rally. S&P 754 was Friday's intraday low - once that breaks I think we say hello to November 2008 lows (741) Apple continues its slow walk to $83.

p.s. notice how the drug addict gets less and less pleasure from each hit of the bailout from government? Bear Stearns "save" gave us weeks of rally, Fannie/Freddie days, AIG hours, and with "Citigroup save 3.0" it lasted long enough to take a restroom break.

Sometime later this year I expect the market to realize the government will not save them, and that might be out ultimate wash out low. Until then, we wait for CNBC news breaks on how those that walk on water will "fix it".

Short Apple in fund and personal account

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