Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Bookkeeping: Short (AMZN)

As mentioned the past day or two I've been watching (AMZN) for a short. I wanted to see its energy peter out. Today on a morning surge (my bearish China article could not of been timed more perfectly - everything China is flying today) the stock is negative. I am going to enter my short in the $62.60 range. My target is the top of that gap @ $52 (+17%); stop loss $66.25 (-7.5%)

This is a much wider range than I normally employ but I want to give this a wide berth since this is a volatile stock.

I'll most likely go long at $52 but it's a long ways away so I'll see what the market is like when (if) we get there.

***** Off topic

This market is giddy - just imagine if we lose 1 million jobs Friday - it might go up 20%. I keep teasing about this lousy Baltic Dry Index because this is the latest "thesis" trade. If you are not familiar with what this is, its a shipping rate - when it goes up everyone says global growth is emerging; when it falls everyone says global growth is diminishing. As if 1 shipping rate rules the world GDP. In 2005-2006 the Baltic Dry Index was between 3000-5000 for the majority of the time. That's a normal economy; than it went irrational in latter 2007 through mid 2008 ... going north of 11,000. It fell to 700s late last year (down 90%+!) and now is "back up" to 1100. And I'm supposed to be giddy about global growth? It could double from here and still be 50% below 2005-2006 (i.e. normal) levels.

But never let a thesis stop you. It's all about thesis when you need to "create" something out of nothing. I would like to reiterate I've been saying the U.S. will not lead the world out of this recession as is the popular convention. I think it will be Asia. But not yet. This reminds me of the "housing is bottoming" call in spring 2008 and "technology is safe" call in summer 2008 and "can't get worse in financials" every 3 months for the past year and a half. Thesis. All those worked for 2-6 weeks and them those who followed said thesis had their hat handed to them. But for daytraders and momo guys it can work for a while. Until reality sets in. I don't see anything different here.

Short in fund and personal account

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