Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Dumping Half of Potash (POT)

Friday, February 6, 2009

Bookkeeping: Dumping Half of Potash (POT)

Posted by Mark at 11:55 AM

Potash (POT) has been acting great but I am going to dump half the position here in the $91 range - it is now at a 3 month high and touching highs of early November 2008. I am going to hope for 1 more big day Monday and then drop the position to a 0.1% stake if I can see something close to $100. If not, I will buy back the half I sold on a pullback. My position size has been too small unfortunately on this one. I don't have trailing stops available, otherwise I'd just throw a 4%ish type of trailing stop on here.

Cutting this down from a 1.4% stake to 0.7%.

Long Potash in fund; no personal position

10 comments:

sm said...: Hi Mark and market gurus: I know I'm thick most of the times, so pls would someone enlighten me on the following:
1. Crude is down-oil stocks are up.
2. Unemplyment is skyrocketting-banks are up.

Is this a start of a bull market or what?

And again, I'll be proven a morron again, but I'm dumping most of my Canadian Bank Stocks as I write this.

Cheers,
sm.; February 6, 2009 1:22 PM
TraderMark said...: In theory the market is "forward looking"

On each rally, the bulls say "look through the bad news today" and look out 6 months when it will all be good.

The problem with that, is they have been saying that for 15 months now. Same line in each rally. Every time thus far they have been wrong. One time they will be correct.

Agree on the oil situation but right now Baltic Dry Index is more important than oil.; February 6, 2009 1:29 PM
A Zamanian said...: I think your problem sm, is that you are trying to make sense of this and desire a logical explanation. That is so 90s!; February 6, 2009 1:29 PM
sliman said...: Trader Mark and anyone else,
Does anyone think Paul Voucker will be able to get the Fed to RAISE rates before inflation goes way up from all the dollars being created. I have been buying GLD thinking there is no way they will raise rates on time.; February 6, 2009 1:36 PM
TraderMark said...: Very true

The reality is when the market wants to go up you can find 100 explanations

And vice versa

Bad news was ignored late Dec early Jan

then it was acknowledged for 5 weeks

Now it is ignored again

The underlying situation is no different the past 3 months

just the reaction in the market; February 6, 2009 1:37 PM
TraderMark said...: sli, no. I think Larry Summers is the man behind the curtain. Geithner is for public face, Volcker is for show.

The govt will pump the economy with as many drugs as possible to kick the can down the road. That's official policy for a few decades now.; February 6, 2009 1:38 PM
sm said...: Thanks Mark.

Hi Zamanian: Well, i'm a retired electrical engineer by proffession, and I guess, the "logic" thinking requierd there, probably works agains me, as a small time investor, trying to, at least do better than the 2% interest the bank is offering on my savings. We'll see. By the time I'm done loosing money on my investments, those 2% would have looked like a dream...

Cheers,
sm; February 6, 2009 1:42 PM
Jeff Wahlen said...: With a PE of only 7, POT is a long term holding.

Jeff - Orlando; February 6, 2009 1:58 PM
TraderMark said...: Jeff, I've owned it for a year and a half so I'm in your camp.; February 6, 2009 2:00 PM
thestockpickernose said...: silman to answer your question,

No I don't think the Fed will act quickly enough. That being said Bernanke just might be watching this though, since low interest rates got us into the mess we are in today. I feel that as soon as we have positive job growth for 2 or 3 months they should they should immediately take rates to 1% and start inching up interest rates slowly from there, they can always stop and hold for a while say at 2% - 3%. As for the market, currently we are in a bear market rally caused by the news of TARP 2.0 and the stimulus package. Be prepared to take some profits off the table. I do believe the market will rally up 10-20% though, and then pull back.; February 7, 2009 6:18 PM

Fund My Mutual Fund

Friday, February 6, 2009

Bookkeeping: Dumping Half of Potash (POT)

10 comments:

Post a Comment

*

Subscribe

Support This Blog

Recent Posts

Financial Blogroll

Our Readers' Websites

Industry Focus Sites

Some Mutual Funds That Perk My Interest

Contact Me

Archives By Topic

Weekly Most Read

Twitter Updates

Twitter Updates

Archives By Date

Fun / Info: Non Finance Blogs