Friday, February 6, 2009

Another General Shot: Dollar Tree (DLTR)

TweetThis
Ah the lovely randomness of markets - fun times indeed. Dollar Tree (DLTR) has been one of the "Generals" of the mid/small cap space - in fact on my screen for best performing stocks of 2008 it came in 7th with a 60% return [Dec 29: Best Performing Stocks of 2008] Peer Family Dollar (FDO) reported a solid number a month ago and surged [Jan 8: Family Dollar Continues to Strengthen on "Pooring of America"] so it would only make logical sense that DLTR should follow in its step, right?

Not so much. Instead this general was shot with almost no time to even put the blindfold on, even as it narrowed guidance to the top end of a previous range.
  • Discount-store operator Dollar Tree Inc. said Thursday that its same-store sales rose 2.2 percent during the fourth-quarter and raised its earnings guidance, citing strong business by bargain-hunting shoppers.
  • Total quarterly sales jumped 6.8 percent to $1.39 billion, from $1.3 billion in last year's fiscal fourth quarter. "Dollar Tree continues to be right for the times," said President and Chief Executive Bob Sasser in a statement. "The expanded assortment of high-value basic consumable merchandise makes our stores more relevant and continues to drive sales." Sasser noted that Dollar Tree's holiday sales were strong despite a series of winter storms across the country in December.
  • For the full year 2008, same-store sales rose 4.1 percent, and total sales jumped 9.5 percent to $4.64 billion from $4.24 billion in the prior year.
  • Dollar Tree now expects fourth-quarter and full-year earnings within the top half of the company's previous guidance for each period.
I won't even try to hazard a guess on why a company who reported just fine was treated like this. It's the casino - it is what it is: brutal and random. Maybe it's just their "turn" to face the meat grinder. Gap (GPS) on the other hand reported -23% same store sales (versus -15% expectation) and was up 6%. I guess "it was priced in".

As for DLTR ...in an instant the chart goes from "safe haven" to "death to Smoochie".

No position


7 comments:

NW said...

Mark, lot of action in the fertilizer names today. What do you make of that?

jegan said...

It seems that every time I check out a ticker that has dropped for inexplicable reasons, Zacks.com has just profiled them in a positive light. Could be a coincidence, but maybe Zacks is the new contrarian indicator...

This from the WSJ:
---------------------------------------------------------

Call it the Depression trade. The pockets of strength in retail stocks steadily empty, until even Family Dollar Stores and Dollar Tree Inc. are considered overvalued.

Retailers “continue to underperform, and if the market’s vulnerable (they) will possibly still lead on the down side,” said Steven Goldman, market strategist at Weeden & Co. “It may continue to lag (even) on rebounds until there’s an anticipation of a bottom in housing prices. With the dire straits of unemployment (and) savings increasing, spending is still not there.”

Even discounters are suffering, said John Wilson, a technical analyst at Morgan Keegan. “Would I rather have a Wal-Mart than a Macy’s? Probably so, but it’s difficult to get excited about anything in retail right now,” he said.

--------------------------------------------------
Still doesn't make any sense..Could be a market rotation out of foodstuff to another sector(s) .. Maybe tech and health...

jegan

TraderMark said...

Nw, positive charts as I mentioned yesterday

Anonymous said...

For 3 months stock on shelves low to none. Most likely not paying vendors.

jegan said...

Yahoo finance shows DLTR to be in a good financial position.. Low debt (for retail), good cashflow, good earnings growth..Doesn't mean things haven't changed, but ability to pay doesn't seem to be the issue right now... Maybe low stock has to do with post XMas or something...


Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 11.60%
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 20.10%
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.235
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 371.60M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 187.11M

jegan

TraderMark said...

Currently under 200 day with yesterday's swan dive. Even if interested it is worth waiting for it to bounce a buck and regain its moving average. Otherwise it could be a long spill down here.

It was very pricey on earnings in mid $40s I think.

jegan said...

I am interested.. I normally wait for it to cross the daily stochastics 20 line.... I did buy some WMT today though, with a tight stop....

I gotta say, I don't normally care where I shop, and don't save coupons etc, but I've been shopping the '99cents' store and a bent food outlet the last 4 months. jegan

Post a Comment

Disclaimer: The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.


Site by codeeo
Original WP Premium theme by WP Remix