Thursday, February 26, 2009

80 Winning Stocks that Have Nothing to Do with Gold

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I like to create screens during times like this when the atmosphere is quite bad - we can see what is "working" quite easily. Now with that said, in a "normal" market the adage is to buy what is holding up since it should do best on a rebound; but what we have found during this bear is (if you can time it perfectly) as a trader you want to buy the most horrid junk out there since the short squeezes are enormous. So instead of selling this as the stocks to do best on the rebound, let's call these names that have allowed you to sleep at night and should rebound "nicely" when the day comes.

Since that is not our time frame, I was more curious to see what is holding up the best EX-precious metals. I came up with a very small list of 80 stocks that simply hold the following conditions
  1. Stock price $10+
  2. Average volume 100K+
  3. Trading over 20, 50, and 200 day (simple) moving average
  4. Minimum market cap of $300 million
Below are the "survivors", I've sorted them by largest (market cap) to smallest. Half the list is under $750 million in size showing how few names that a casual investor would are "winning". Our "Auto Replacement" thesis continues to bear fruit [Jan 15, 2009: Thesis - Automotive Replacement and Accessories] - remember O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) was our favorite here but AZO & AAP also appear... as does the medical electronic records thesis [Jan 9, 2009: Starting Quality Systems] The smaller housing plays thesis is also providing us some shelter in this terrible storm [Feb 11, 2009: Beginning Starter Stake in First National Financial] The "adult education" names continue to hang around although that is becoming one crowded trade. One interesting outlier are 2 restaurant stocks....

In green are names we own, blue are names we've discussed

Ticker Company Market Cap
DNA Genentech Inc. 91,036
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. 36,785
AZO AutoZone Inc. 8,267
Q Qwest Communications International 6,032
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 5,331
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc. 4,483
MYL Mylan, Inc. 3,989
DRI Darden Restaurants Inc. 3,851
FDO Family Dollar Stores Inc. 3,841
FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. 3,760
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc. 3,551
DF Dean Foods Co. 3,158
WPI Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. 3,133
LPS Lender Processing Services, Inc. 2,731
SNDA Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. 2,366
CECO Career Education Corp. 2,346
MANT ManTech International Corp. 2,011
MJN Mead Johnson Nutrition Company 1,915
AWH Allied World Assurance Company 1,915
GHL Greenhill & Co Inc. 1,897
SEPR Sepracor, Inc. 1,820
COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc. 1,743
MVSN Macrovision Solutions Corp. 1,548
EMS Emergency Medical Services Corp. 1,488
DLM Del Monte Foods Co. 1,487
MDRX Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions 1,378
EYE Advanced Medical Optics Inc. 1,357
LIA Liberty Acquisition Holdings Corp. 1,144
QSII Quality Systems Inc. 1,132
LANC Lancaster Colony Corp. 1,115
STAR Starent Networks, Corp. 1,090
CPLA Capella Education Co. 981
CVTX CV Therapeutics, Inc. 954
CHE Chemed Corp. 943
CYCL Centennial Communications Corp. 896
THS Treehouse Foods Inc. 852
MDAS MedAssets, Inc. 841
CY Cypress Semiconductor Corporation 744
IWOV Interwoven Inc. 740
FYR Sapphire Industrials Corp. 697
LNCE Lance Inc. 682
AIPC American Italian Pasta Co. 664
MDVN Medivation, Inc. 653
ITMN InterMune Inc. 643
HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. 626
TNDM Neutral Tandem, Inc. 614
BEAT CardioNet, Inc. 600
TG Tredegar Corp. 591
EPIQ EPIQ Systems Inc. 587
ASIA AsiaInfo Holdings Inc. 570
OCN Ocwen Financial Corp. 568
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. 548
PEGA Pegasystems Inc. 545
SWIM thinkorswim Group Inc. 545
URX United Refining Energy Corporation 537
CENT Central Garden & Pet Co. 520
DSP SP Acquisition Holdings, Inc. 515
ICUI ICU Medical Inc. 506
SXCI SXC Health Solutions, Corp. 496
TOH Hicks Acquisition Co. I Inc. 490
TCW Triplecrown Acquisition Corp. 490
NAQ NRDC Acquisition Corp. 489
GHQ GHL Acquisition Corp. 455
IDEV Indevus Pharmaceuticals Inc. 432
HOTT Hot Topic Inc. 406
VRY Victory Acquisition Corp. 399
CML Compellent Technologies, Inc. 396
GEOY GeoEye, Inc. 396
BPW BPW Acquisition Corp. 385
TSYS TeleCommunication Systems Inc. 381
ICFI ICF International Inc. 363
ODSY Odyssey Healthcare Inc. 360
AIRV Airvana, Inc. 351
GQN Global Brands Acquisition Corp. 341
HGG hhgregg, Inc. 327
OPTR Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 327
BJRI BJ's Restaurants Inc. 323
SNCR Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. 315
VNUS Vnus Medical Technologies Inc. 309
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems Inc. 302

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