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Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Mucho Bullishness in the Blogosphere

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Lots of "long banks, long oil" by the daytrading community... could bode well (self reinforcing) to help push this market.

Myself - would really like S&P 850 again and see some of the casinos, REITs, retailers, et al bounce with Obama 2.0 - the New Hope. (the siren calls for recovery should be loud if/when we get there) Rebounding north of S&P 820 should be a given considering the absolute beating the bulls have taken the past 2 weeks - I am surprised it has not been thus far. A lot of hand to hand fighting going on at 820. If the bulls cannot pull that minor victory off it really is disheartening. We are extremely oversold.

The time frames right now are so short on people's trades - even people I've been reading for years who lean "buy and holdish" or "buy and swing trade over many months" are just flipping things in 4 hour increments.

Simply no investing out there - similar to early December pattern of flipping flipping flipping. Today's winners are essentially the biggest losers of yesterday or the past week. Much of what we own is not doing much since it was not the merchandise at the center of the battlefield, losing an arm and an eye the past few weeks.

If this 820 can hold today, you sort of have to get "short term bullish" to 850 than start getting bearish - again, the time frames are simply so short only the nimble folk need bother. Apple (AAPL) after the bell so bulls should look forward to that - the stock has priced in pestilence.

Remember, 2009 is the year of ping pong - sentiment is everything. News from 4 weeks ago little different than 4 days ago; just the interpretation of such.

p.s. oil ($USO) could be forming a pretty "double bottom" - if that bounces, all the calls for "a return to global growth" begin - you know the story from there - dry bulk shippers, coal, nat gas, corn, coffee, infrastructure, steel - the whole complex is back into favor ;) "student body left" It's just Groundhog day repeated every 2-5 weeks.

2 comments:

Risk Manager Jeff said...

Really.. I dislike using 5 minute charts.. but I dislike getting run over even more!

I'll "invest" once the markets break to new lows AND the charts tell me to buy...

Agree with oil. I was staring at it, but didnt pull the trigger.

jegan said...

Maybe you'll get your wish as far as REITs are concerned:

Bullmarkets.com - Why do mortgage REITs look well positioned to currently outperform?

RESEARCH ALERT-Barclays raises US REITs to positive

And these are just two that I've run into lately..... My gut feeling is that as REITs cut their dividends, stock prices will drop. Couple that with the common REIT holder, a retired person who depends on the payout for income, and I just don't see an upside.

jegan

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